Match Info

NRL - Round 19

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: 4 Pines Park (Brookvale)

Referee: Gough P. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Australia	Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2


	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles		North Queensland Cowboys

	1	X	2
	1.47	26	2.75
	1.58	18	2.6
	1.53	20.06	2.69
	1.53		2.50	Watch
	1.52	23	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.57)	17.41 ↓ (23.73)	2.64 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
60%

Draw
5.3%

North Queensland Cowboys
34.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.2%

3.9%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.1%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

North Queensland Cowboys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Queensland Cowboys than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles - North Queensland Cowboys Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Manly-Warringah will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -6.5 - Manly-Warringah (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Manly-Warringah (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trbojevic T.	1. Drinkwater S.
2. Saab J.	2. Burns B.
3. Koula T.	3. Laybutt Z.
4. Garrick R.	4. Chester T.
5. Hopoate L.	5. Taulagi M.
6. Walsh J.	6. Purdue J.
7. Fogarty J.	7. Clifford J.
8. Paseka T.	8. Mikaele T.
9. Simpkin J.	9. Mahoney R.
11. Olakau'atu H.	10. Taumalolo J.
12. Trbojevic B.	11. Luki H.
13. Trbojevic J.	12. Nanai J.
17. Laiafi S.	13. Cotter R.
Substitutes
10. Hetherington K.	14. Luke S.
14. Waddell C.	15. Neame G.
15. Brown N.	16. Lodge M.
16. Bullemor E.	17. Hess C.
18. Feledy J.	18. McIntyre S.
22. Lenaz N.	19. Bateman J.
Coaches
. Foran K.	. Payten T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 6)
10', Chester T. (Try),
11', Clifford J. (Conversion Goal),
17', Saab J. (Try),
18', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
24', Hopoate L. (Try),
26', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
28', Olakau'atu H. (Try),
29', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (4 - 12)
59', Burns B. (Try),
61', Clifford J. (Missed Conversion),
66', Saab J. (Try),
67', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
69', Burns B. (Try),
70', Clifford J. (Missed Conversion),
78', Cotter R. (Try),
79', Clifford J. (Missed Conversion),
Extra Time (0 - 1)
82', Drinkwater S. (Drop Goal),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manly-Warringah won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

North Queensland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Manly-Warringah is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Manly-Warringah won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 496:380. (average 24.8:19).

Including home matches between the teams, Manly-Warringah won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 201:198. (average 22.3:22).

Last Results with these Odds

North Queensland Cowboys - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.85%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Australian NRL
05.07.26	Parramatta Eels - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	23:14 ✺
27.06.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm	30:4 ✺
20.06.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	13:12 OT ✺
04.06.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - South Sydney Rabbitohs	28:14 ✺
29.05.26	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	28:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLWL
- North Queensland Cowboys
Australian NRL
27.06.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Penrith Panthers	26:12 ✺
21.06.26	New Zealand Warriors - North Queensland Cowboys	38:20 ✺
06.06.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Dolphins	14:40 ✺
31.05.26	Canberra Raiders - North Queensland Cowboys	26:12 ✺
24.05.26	North Queensland Cowboys - South Sydney Rabbitohs	30:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
16.04.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	6:38
17.05.25	North Queensland Cowboys - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	6:24
08.03.25	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - North Queensland Cowboys	42:12
06.07.24	North Queensland Cowboys - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	20:21 OT
15.07.23	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - North Queensland Cowboys	8:19
17.06.22	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - North Queensland Cowboys	26:28
04.09.21	North Queensland Cowboys - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	18:46

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - North Queensland Cowboys: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide