Match Info
NRL - Round 1Date: 5 March 2026, ThursdayLocation: AAMI Park (Melbourne)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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Australia | Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL |
France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
New-zealand | SKY Go NZ |
United-kingdom | Sky Sports Action, Sky Sports+ |
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Melbourne Storm |
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Parramatta Eels |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.4 |
26 |
3 |
|
 |
1.44 |
23 |
2.75 |
|
 |
1.48 |
18 |
3 |
|
 |
1.43 |
20.55 |
3.04 |
Watch |
 |
1.44 |
21 |
2.75 |
|
 |
1.47 |
21 |
2.84 |
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Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.44 ↓ (1.49) |
21.59 ↑ (20.94) |
2.9 ↑ (2.8) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 43.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)
- The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Melbourne Storm 63.9% | Draw 4.3% | Parramatta Eels 31.8% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Melbourne Storm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)Parramatta Eels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)Melbourne Storm - Parramatta Eels Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:18 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1. Faalogo S.
| 1. Iongi I.
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2. Warbrick W.
| 2. Simonsson B.
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3. Howarth J.
| 3. Penisini W.
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4. Moses L.
| 4. Kelly B.
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5. Meaney N.
| 5. Russell S.
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6. Munster C.
| 6. Pezet J.
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7. Hughes J.
| 7. Moses M. (C)
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8. Utoikamanu S.
| 8. Hopgood J.
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9. Grant H. (C)
| 9. Smith R.
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10. King J.
| 10. Paulo J.
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11. Chan J.
| 11. Williams J.
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12. Lisati A.
| 12. Kautoga K.
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13. MacDonald A.
| 13. De Belin J.
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| Substitutes |
|---|
14. Wishart T.
| 14. Walker D.
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15. Clarke C.
| 15. Tuivaiti S.
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16. Kamikamica T.
| 16. Doorey M.
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17. Moale D.
| 17. Da Silva T.
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18. Conn P.
| 18. Tuilagi K.
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19. Tuimalatu-Brown S.
| 19. Papalii J.
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| Coaches |
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. Bellamy C.
| . Ryles J.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (18 - 4)
- 5', Russell S. (Try),
- 7', Moses M. (Missed Conversion),
- 11', Warbrick W. (Try),
- 12', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
- 15', Grant H. (Try),
- 17', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
- 27', Howarth J. (Try),
- 28', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (34 - 0)
- 47', Chan J. (Try),
- 48', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
- 52', Grant H. (Try),
- 52', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
- 56', Moses L. (Try),
- 57', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
- 64', Faalogo S. (Try),
- 65', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
- 67', Lisati A. (Try),
- 69', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
- 78', Faalogo S. (Try),
- 79', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 5. Melbourne could have a small edge in this match.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 490:291. (average 24.5:14.6).Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 360:176. (average 32.7:16).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian NRL | | | 31.07.25 | Parramatta Eels - Melbourne Storm | 10:16 | | 09.03.25 | Melbourne Storm - Parramatta Eels | 56:18 | | 26.07.24 | Parramatta Eels - Melbourne Storm | 14:32 | | 19.05.24 | Melbourne Storm - Parramatta Eels | 48:16 | | 28.07.23 | Melbourne Storm - Parramatta Eels | 46:16 | | 02.03.23 | Parramatta Eels - Melbourne Storm | 12:16 OT | | 01.09.22 | Parramatta Eels - Melbourne Storm | 22:14 |
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