Match Info

NRL - Round 25

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Accor Stadium (Sydney)

Referee: Smith T. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Action, Sky Sports+


	South Sydney Rabbitohs		New Zealand Warriors

	1	X	2
	2.2	26	1.72
	2.5	18	1.6
	2.38	20.1	1.64	Watch
	2.16	26	1.73	Watch
	2.33	21	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.36)	22.22 ↑ (10.12)	1.67 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Sydney Rabbitohs
40.2%

Draw
4.2%

New Zealand Warriors
55.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.4%

8.7%

53.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

8.8%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Sydney Rabbitohs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

New Zealand Warriors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Sydney Rabbitohs than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Zealand Warriors than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

South Sydney Rabbitohs - New Zealand Warriors Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. New Zealand will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dufty M.	1. Tuaupiki T.
2. Johnston A.	2. Watene-Zelezniak D.
3. Duncan T.	4. Halasima L.
4. Wighton J.	5. Khan-Pereira A.
5. Graham C.	6. Hanson L.
6. Walker C.	7. Harris-Tavita C.
7. Sullivan J.	8. Fisher-Harris J.
8. Tatola T.	9. Egan W.
9. Smith B.	10. Barnett M.
10. Koloamatangi K.	11. Capewell K.
11. Fifita D.	12. Laban J.
12. Aitken E.	13. Clark E.
13. Murray C.	18. Pompey A.
Substitutes
14. Gray J.	3. Leiataua A.
15. Hubner L.	14. Healey S.
16. Keppie S.	15. Stowers-Smith T.
17. Le Blanc L.	16. Vaimauga D.
18. Mamouzelos P.	17. Ieremia-Toeava E.
19. Kosi E.	21. Cleary J.
Coaches
. Bennett W.	. Webster A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (8 - 26)
6', Fisher-Harris J. (Try),
7', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
8', Halasima L. (Try),
10', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
14', Wighton J. (Try),
15', Sullivan J. (Missed Conversion),
21', Barnett M. (Try),
22', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
27', Johnston A. (Try),
28', Sullivan J. (Missed Conversion),
33', Harris-Tavita C. (Try),
34', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
37', Tuaupiki T. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (18 - 19)
45', Watene-Zelezniak D. (Try),
45', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
50', Duncan T. (Try),
50', Sullivan J. (Conversion Goal),
55', Johnston A. (Try),
55', Sullivan J. (Conversion Goal),
62', Walker C. (Try),
63', Sullivan J. (Conversion Goal),
69', Laban J. (Try),
71', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
72', Khan-Pereira A. (Try),
76', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
80', Hanson L. (Drop Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Sydney won 3.

South Sydney has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

New Zealand is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

South Sydney may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

New Zealand is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, South Sydney won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 574:367. (average 31.9:20.4).

Including home matches between the teams, South Sydney won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 366:223. (average 33.3:20.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Sydney Rabbitohs
Australian NRL
14.08.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - South Sydney Rabbitohs	6:22 ✺
08.08.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Parramatta Eels	28:24 ✺
02.08.26	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - South Sydney Rabbitohs	32:16 ✺
24.07.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Melbourne Storm	28:26 ✺
18.07.26	Canberra Raiders - South Sydney Rabbitohs	34:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLWL
- New Zealand Warriors
Australian NRL
15.08.26	Brisbane Broncos - New Zealand Warriors	6:40 ✺
07.08.26	New Zealand Warriors - Penrith Panthers	28:12 ✺
01.08.26	Gold Coast Titans - New Zealand Warriors	6:42 ✺
25.07.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - New Zealand Warriors	18:6 ✺
18.07.26	New Zealand Warriors - St. George Illawarra Dragons	20:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
01.06.25	South Sydney Rabbitohs - New Zealand Warriors	30:36
06.04.24	South Sydney Rabbitohs - New Zealand Warriors	4:34
30.06.23	New Zealand Warriors - South Sydney Rabbitohs	6:28
06.08.22	South Sydney Rabbitohs - New Zealand Warriors	48:10
14.05.22	New Zealand Warriors - South Sydney Rabbitohs	30:32
24.07.21	South Sydney Rabbitohs - New Zealand Warriors	60:22
19.06.20	South Sydney Rabbitohs - New Zealand Warriors	40:12

South Sydney Rabbitohs - New Zealand Warriors: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide