The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
New Zealand Warriors 38.9%
Draw 5.6%
Penrith Panthers 55.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
35.5%
4.1%
60.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.8%
3.8%
55.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
New Zealand Warriors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
Penrith Panthers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Zealand Warriors than the current prediction. (-0.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penrith Panthers than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
New Zealand Warriors - Penrith Panthers Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 18:22
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Nicoll-Klokstad C.
1. Edgar J.
2. Watene-Zelezniak D.
2. Jenkins T.
3. Leiataua A.
3. Alamoti P.
4. Halasima L.
4. Tago I.
5. Khan-Pereira A.
5. To'o B.
6. Harris-Tavita C.
7. Cleary N.
8. Fisher-Harris J.
8. Leota M.
9. Egan W.
9. Lussick F.
10. Barnett M.
10. Smith L.
11. Capewell K.
11. Papali'i I.
12. Laban J.
12. Martin L.
13. Clark E.
13. Yeo I.
18. Metcalf L.
18. Cole J.
Substitutes
14. Healey S.
14. Scott B.
15. Stowers-Smith T.
15. Sorensen S.
16. Vaimauga D.
16. Henry L.
17. Ieremia-Toeava E.
17. Phillips B.
20. Tuaupiki T.
19. Talagi B.
23. Pompey A.
21. Patea L.
Coaches
. Webster A.
. Cleary I.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (18 - 0)
5', Clark E. (Try),
7', Metcalf L. (Conversion Goal),
12', Metcalf L. (Try),
14', Metcalf L. (Conversion Goal),
31', Harris-Tavita C. (Try),
32', Metcalf L. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (10 - 12)
44', Nicoll-Klokstad C. (Try),
45', Metcalf L. (Missed Conversion),
68', Cleary N. (Try),
69', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
71', Edgar J. (Try),
72', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
77', Metcalf L. (Try),
79', Metcalf L. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, New Zealand won 1.
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
Penrith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, New Zealand has had a series of away games.
Penrith could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, New Zealand won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 312:526. (average 15.6:26.3).
Including home matches between the teams, New Zealand won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 184:263. (average 16.7:23.9).