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Current Win Probability
St. George Illawarra Dragons 31.8%
Draw 4.2%
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 64%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
42.6%
4.5%
52.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48%
5.1%
46.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
St. George Illawarra Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St. George Illawarra Dragons's form might have worsened.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. George Illawarra Dragons than the current prediction. (+16.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. George Illawarra Dragons, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles than the current prediction. (-17.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
St. George Illawarra Dragons - Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:29
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Sloan T.
1. Trbojevic T. (C)
2. Tuipulotu C.
2. Saab J.
3. Suli M.
3. Koula T.
4. Holmes V.
4. Garrick R.
5. Setu T.
5. Hopoate L.
6. Flanagan K.
6. Brooks L.
7. Atkinson D.
7. Fogarty J.
8. Guler E.
8. Paseka T.
9. Cook D. (C)
9. Wakeham B.
10. Couchman T.
10. Hetherington K.
11. Leilua L.
11. Olakau'atu H.
12. Su'A J.
12. Trbojevic B.
13. Stewart H.
13. Trbojevic J.
Substitutes
14. Liddle J.
14. Simpkin J.
15. Lawrie B.
15. Waddell C.
17. Kerr J.
16. Bullemor E.
18. Sele H.
17. Laiafi S.
19. Reed K.
18. Bryan P.
20. Feagai M.
19. Faulalo C.
Coaches
. Flanagan S.
. Foran K.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (12 - 16)
7', Garrick R. (Try),
9', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
16', Trbojevic T. (Try),
17', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
18', Garrick R. (Try),
19', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
31', Leilua L. (Try),
33', Holmes V. (Conversion Goal),
36', Liddle J. (Try),
37', Holmes V. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (6 - 12)
45', Setu T. (Try),
46', Holmes V. (Conversion Goal),
55', Hetherington K. (Try),
55', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
66', Hopoate L. (Try),
67', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 12).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. George Illawarra won 2.
St. George Illawarra is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Manly-Warringah's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
St. George Illawarra may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Manly-Warringah is a strong favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, St. George Illawarra won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 427:390. (average 21.4:19.5).
Including home matches between the teams, St. George Illawarra won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 312:210. (average 24:16.2).
Australia
New-zealand
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Sloan T. 
Tuipulotu C. 
Suli M. 
Atkinson D. 
Wakeham B. 
Leilua L. 
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