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Current Win Probability
St. George Illawarra Dragons 43.9%
Draw 4.4%
North Queensland Cowboys 51.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
45.1%
4.6%
50.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
51.2%
5.2%
44.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
St. George Illawarra Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
North Queensland Cowboys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. George Illawarra Dragons than the current prediction. (+7.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. George Illawarra Dragons, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Queensland Cowboys than the current prediction. (-7.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for North Queensland Cowboys, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
St. George Illawarra Dragons - North Queensland Cowboys Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:26
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Gutherson C.
1. Drinkwater S.
2. Tuipulotu C.
2. Burns B.
3. Suli M.
3. Purdue J.
4. Holmes V.
4. Chester T.
5. Fale D.
5. Taulagi M.
6. King-Togia L.
6. Clifford J.
7. Atkinson D.
7. Dearden T.
8. Guler E.
8. Hess C.
9. Cook D.
9. Mahoney R.
10. Couchman T.
10. Taumalolo J.
11. Leilua L.
11. Luki H.
12. Su'A J.
12. McIntyre S.
13. Stewart H.
13. Cotter R.
Substitutes
14. Liddle J.
14. Luke S.
15. Lawrie B.
15. Neame G.
16. Halangahu J.
16. Mikaele T.
17. Sele H.
17. Watts M.
18. Kerr J.
18. Edwards H.
19. Sloan T.
19. Laybutt Z.
20. Tonga L.
20. O'Donnell K.
21. Reed K.
21. Lahrs K.
22. Setu T.
22. Derby R.
Coaches
. Flanagan S.
. Payten T.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 16)
12', Drinkwater S. (Try),
14', Clifford J. (Missed Conversion),
22', Lawrie B. ↓, Couchman T. ↑,
23', Hess C. ↓, Mikaele T. ↑,
23', Taumalolo J. ↓, Neame G. ↑,
24', McIntyre S. ↓, O'Donnell K. ↑,
29', Purdue J. (Try),
30', Clifford J. (Conversion Goal),
31', Guler E. ↓, Sele H. ↑,
38', Purdue J. (Try),
39', Clifford J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (0 - 16)
47', Cook D. ↓, Liddle J. ↑,
51', Burns B. (Try),
53', Clifford J. (Conversion Goal),
53', Stewart H. ↓, Guler E. ↑,
55', Neame G. ↓, Hess C. ↑,
56', Burns B. ↓, Laybutt Z. ↑,
58', Sele H. ↓, Halangahu J. ↑,
59', Mikaele T. ↓, Taumalolo J. ↑,
61', Taulagi M. (Try),
63', Clifford J. (Missed Conversion),
66', Su'A J. ↓, Stewart H. ↑,
69', Liddle J. ↓, Cook D. ↑,
73', Hess C. ↓, Mikaele T. ↑,
79', Clifford J. (Try),
79', Clifford J. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 12).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. George Illawarra won 0.
St. George Illawarra is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
North Queensland's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, St. George Illawarra won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 368:535. (average 18.4:26.8).
Including home matches between the teams, St. George Illawarra won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 213:283. (average 19.4:25.7).
Australia
New-zealand
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Gutherson C. 
Tuipulotu C. 
Suli M. 
Atkinson D. 
Leilua L. 
Derby R. 
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