Match Info
NRL - Round 14Date: 5 June 2026, FridayLocation: AAMI Park (Melbourne)Referee: Klein A. (Aus)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL |
 New-zealand | SKY Go NZ |
 Usa | Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2 |
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Melbourne Storm |
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Newcastle Knights |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 48.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)
- The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Melbourne Storm
56.6% | Draw
3.9% | Newcastle Knights
39.5% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Melbourne Storm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)Newcastle Knights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (-2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (+2.1%)Melbourne Storm - Newcastle Knights Predictions
Users Predictions:
2 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 2 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:22 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1.  Faalogo S.
| 1.  Ponga K. (C)
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2.  Warbrick W.
| 2.  Young D.
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4. Waitere M.
| 3. Gagai D.
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5. Moses L.
| 4. Hunt F.
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6. Munster C.
| 5. Marzhew G.
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7. Hughes J.
| 6. Sharpe F.
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8. Utoikamanu S.
| 7. Brown D.
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9. Grant H. (C)
| 8. Saifiti J.
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10. King J.
| 9. Crossland P.
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11. Clarke C.
| 10. Mooney T.
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12. Lisati A.
| 11. Lucas D.
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13. Loiero T.
| 12. McEwen J.
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18.  Chan J.
| 13. Croker M.
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| Substitutes |
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14. Toelau T.
| 14. Graham H.
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15. MacDonald A.
| 15. Frizell T.
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16. Hetherington J.
| 16. Saulo P.
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17. Pahulu J.
| 17. Cant T.
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19. Tuimalatu-Brown S.
| 18. Hopwood C.
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20.  Blore S.
| 19. Manuleleua F.
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| Coaches |
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. Bellamy C.
| . Holbrook J.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (14 - 12)
- 8', Utoikamanu S. (Try),
- 9', Faalogo S. (Conversion Goal),
- 17', Sharpe F. (Try),
- 18', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
- 23', Waitere M. (Try),
- 25', Faalogo S. (Missed Conversion),
- 30', Lucas D. (Try),
- 32', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
- 38', Warbrick W. (Try),
- 40', Faalogo S. (Missed Conversion),
- 2nd Half (18 - 18)
- 41', Brown D. (Try),
- 43', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
- 46', Hughes J. (Try),
- 47', Faalogo S. (Conversion Goal),
- 56', Moses L. (Try),
- 57', Faalogo S. (Conversion Goal),
- 61', McEwen J. (Try),
- 62', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
- 70', Loiero T. (Try),
- 71', Faalogo S. (Conversion Goal),
- 73', Saifiti J. (Try),
- 74', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 3.Melbourne has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).Newcastle is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. Melbourne might have a minor edge in this game.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 16 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 584:290. (average 29.2:14.5).Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 304:142. (average 30.4:14.2).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian NRL | | | 12.07.25 | Newcastle Knights - Melbourne Storm | 14:32 | | 09.06.24 | Melbourne Storm - Newcastle Knights | 36:28 | | 24.03.24 | Newcastle Knights - Melbourne Storm | 14:12 | | 23.02.24 | Melbourne Storm - Newcastle Knights | 28:10 | | 22.07.23 | Newcastle Knights - Melbourne Storm | 26:18 | | 01.05.22 | Newcastle Knights - Melbourne Storm | 2:50 | | 17.07.21 | Melbourne Storm - Newcastle Knights | 48:4 |
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