Match Info
NRL - Play Offs - 1/8-finalsDate: 11 September 2026, FridayLocation: Sydney Football Stadium (Sydney)Referee: Klein A. (Aus)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Africa | SupeSport ESPN 2 |
 Australia | Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, Nine, NRL TV |
 France | beIN Sports 1 |
 New-zealand | SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2 |
 South-africa | SupeSport ESPN 2 |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports Mix, Sky Sports Mix |
 Usa | Fox Soccer Plus |
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South Sydney Rabbitohs |
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Newcastle Knights |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.38 |
26 |
3.1 |
|
 |
1.45 |
18 |
3 |
|
 |
1.36 |
21 |
3 |
 Watch |
 |
1.40 |
|
3.00 |
|
 |
1.37 |
23 |
3.25 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.39 ↓
(1.4) |
17.6 ↓
(21) |
3.07 ↑
(3) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 49.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-36)
- The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
South Sydney Rabbitohs
65.3% | Draw
5.2% | Newcastle Knights
29.6% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:South Sydney Rabbitohs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)Newcastle Knights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Sydney Rabbitohs than the current prediction. (-4.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (+2.8%)South Sydney Rabbitohs - Newcastle Knights Predictions
New Consensus by Tipsters:- Points O/U 49.5 - over (1.85) (votes: 87%) ⭐ Best Value.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 43:7 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
|---|
1.  Dufty M.
| 1. Ponga K. (C)
|
2.  Johnston A.
| 2.  Young D.
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3. Mitchell L.
| 3. Gagai D.
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4. Wighton J.
| 4. Best B.
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5. Graham C.
| 5. Marzhew G.
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6. Walker C.
| 6. Sharpe F.
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7. Sullivan J.
| 7. Smith S.
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8.  Tatola T.
| 8. Frizell T.
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9.  Smith B.
| 9. Crossland P.
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10. Koloamatangi K.
| 10. Hopwood C.
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11. Fifita D.
| 11. McEwen J.
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12. Duncan T.
| 12. Manuleleua F.
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13. Murray C. (C)
| 13. Croker M.
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| Substitutes |
|---|
14. Gray J.
| 14. Graham H.
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15. Hubner L.
| 15. Crouch L.
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16. Keppie S.
| 16. Saulo P.
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17. Humphreys J.
| 17. Cant T.
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18. Elliott A.
| 18. Hunt F.
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19. Siegwalt L.
| 19. Winter T.
|
| Coaches |
|---|
. Bennett W.
| . Holbrook J.
|
Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (6 - 10)
- 5', McEwen J. (Try),
- 7', Smith S. (Missed Conversion),
- 26', Gagai D. (Try),
- 28', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 36', Graham C. (Try),
- 36', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (4 - 10)
- 62', McEwen J. (Try),
- 63', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 66', Young D. (Try),
- 67', Smith S. (Missed Conversion),
- 75', Gray J. (Try),
- 76', Mitchell L. (Missed Conversion),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Sydney won 1.South Sydney is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).Newcastle has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).South Sydney may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, South Sydney is the team to beat.In the last 19 head-to-head matches, South Sydney won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 555:367. (average 29.2:19.3).Including home matches between the teams, South Sydney won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 355:214. (average 29.6:17.8).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian NRL | | | 12.07.26 | South Sydney Rabbitohs - Newcastle Knights | 26:24 | | 03.05.26 | Newcastle Knights - South Sydney Rabbitohs | 42:38 | | 03.05.25 | South Sydney Rabbitohs - Newcastle Knights | 4:30 | | 24.08.24 | South Sydney Rabbitohs - Newcastle Knights | 16:36 | | 20.08.23 | Newcastle Knights - South Sydney Rabbitohs | 29:10 | | 08.07.22 | Newcastle Knights - South Sydney Rabbitohs | 28:40 | | 12.06.21 | South Sydney Rabbitohs - Newcastle Knights | 24:10 |
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