Match Info

NRL - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Eden Park (Auckland)

Referee: Klein A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Mix, Sky Sports Mix
Usa	FOX Sports 2


	New Zealand Warriors		Newcastle Knights

	1	X	2
	1.5	21	2.65
	1.55	18	2.6
				Watch
	1.40		3.00
	1.48	21	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.46)	15 ↓ (26.5)	2.76 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-32)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New Zealand Warriors
61.1%

Draw
6%

Newcastle Knights
32.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.4%

3.5%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

3.7%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New Zealand Warriors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Newcastle Knights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Zealand Warriors than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. New Zealand will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

Points O/U 46.5 - over (2.10) (votes: 97%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 39:7

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tuaupiki T.	1. Ponga K.
2. Nicoll-Klokstad C.	2. Young D.
3. Leiataua A.	3. Gagai D.
6. Harris-Tavita C.	4. Best B.
7. Martin T.	5. Marzhew G.
8. Fisher-Harris J.	6. Sharpe F.
9. Egan W.	7. Smith S.
10. Barnett M.	8. Frizell T.
11. Capewell K.	9. Crossland P.
12. Laban J.	10. Hopwood C.
13. Clark E.	11. McEwen J.
22. Halasima L.	12. Manuleleua F.
23. Watene-Zelezniak D.	13. Croker M.
Substitutes
4. Pompey A.	14. Graham H.
5. Khan-Pereira A.	15. Crouch L.
14. Healey S.	16. Saulo P.
15. Stowers-Smith T.	17. Cant T.
16. Vaimauga D.	18. Hunt F.
17. Ieremia-Toeava E.	22. Lucas D.
Coaches
. Webster A.	. Holbrook J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 6)
12', Halasima L. (Try),
14', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
28', Sharpe F. (Try),
30', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (4 - 6)
45', Young D. (Try),
47', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
70', Halasima L. (Try),
71', Tuaupiki T. (Missed Conversion),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, New Zealand won 4.

New Zealand has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Newcastle have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

New Zealand is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, New Zealand has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 414:375 (averaging 20.7:18.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for New Zealand against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 284:224 goals (averaging 23.7:18.7 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New Zealand Warriors
Australian NRL
12.09.26	New Zealand Warriors - Dolphins	16:26 ✺
05.09.26	New Zealand Warriors - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	31:30 ✺
30.08.26	New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights	46:32 ✺
22.08.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - New Zealand Warriors	26:45 ✺
15.08.26	Brisbane Broncos - New Zealand Warriors	6:40 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWWW
- Newcastle Knights
Australian NRL
11.09.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Newcastle Knights	10:20 ✺
30.08.26	New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights	46:32 ✺
22.08.26	Newcastle Knights - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	24:44 ✺
16.08.26	Newcastle Knights - Gold Coast Titans	36:26 ✺
09.08.26	Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights	24:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
30.08.26	New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights	46:32
21.03.26	Newcastle Knights - New Zealand Warriors	12:38
20.07.25	Newcastle Knights - New Zealand Warriors	15:20
25.04.25	New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights	26:12
05.05.24	Newcastle Knights - New Zealand Warriors	14:8
31.03.24	New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights	20:12
16.09.23	New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights	40:10

New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide