Match Info

EUROPE: European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 1

Date: 6 December 2024, Friday

Location: Recreation Ground (Bath)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand ROA
Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Fight
Portugal	Sport TV4
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Bath		La Rochelle

	1	X	2
	1.68	21	2.15
	1.73	21	2.2
	1.68	20	2.3
	1.68	20.6	2.34	Watch
	1.62	23	2.38
	1.69	18	2.39
	1.68	20	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.49)	20.51 ↑ (19.68)	2.29 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 39.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bath
55.1%

Draw
4.5%

La Rochelle
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

4.7%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

4.7%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bath has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bath's form might have worsened.

La Rochelle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting La Rochelle's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bath than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bath, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Rochelle than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for La Rochelle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Bath - La Rochelle Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Bath will win (votes: 3 - 50%). La Rochelle will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:19

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. du Toit T.	1. Wardi R.
2. Dunn T.	2. Latu S.
3. Stuart W.	3. Atonio U.
4. Roux Q.	4. Lavault T.
5. Ewels C. (C)	5. Skelton W.
6. Hill T.	6. Jegou O.
7. Pepper G.	7. Haddad M.
8. Reid M.	8. Alldritt G. (C)
9. Schreuder L.	9. Kerr-Barlow T.
10. Russell F.	10. West I.
11. Muir W.	11. Leyds D.
12. Butt W.	12. Danty J.
13. Redpath C.	13. Seuteni U.
14. Cokanasiga J.	14. Nowell J.
15. de Glanville T.	15. Dulin B.
Substitutes
16. Annett N.	16. Lespiaucq-Brettes Q.
17. van Wyk F.	17. Penverne L.
18. Griffin A.	18. Colombe Reazel G.
19. Molony R.	19. Douglas K.
20. Bayliss J.	20. Botia L.
21. Carr-Smith T.	21. Berjon T.
22. Ojomoh M.	22. Reus H.
23. Coetzee J.	23. Thomas T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 21)
5', Russell F. (Penalty Goal),
18', Jegou O. (Try),
18', West I. (Conversion Goal),
27', Latu S. (Try),
28', West I. (Conversion Goal),
31', Russell F. (Penalty Goal),
32', Kerr-Barlow T. (Try),
33', West I. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 3)
48', Dunn T. (Try),
50', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
57', Roux Q. (Try),
57', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
59', West I. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Bath in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches La Rochelle is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bath will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Bath to win the game is with odds 1.68.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Bath won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 21:39 (average 7:13).

Including matches at home between the teams Bath won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bath Rugby
English Premiership Rugby
30.11.24	Bath - Exeter Chiefs	19:15 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
23.11.24	Bedford Blues - Bath	7:21 ✺
09.11.24	Bath - Bristol Rugby	78:19 ✺
02.11.24	Ampthill - Bath	0:73 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
26.10.24	Bath - Sale Sharks	40:13 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWWW
- La Rochelle
French Top 14
30.11.24	La Rochelle - Vannes	14:23 ✺
23.11.24	Castres - La Rochelle	28:24 ✺
02.11.24	La Rochelle - Stade Français	35:18 ✺
26.10.24	Montpellier - La Rochelle	16:0 ✺
20.10.24	La Rochelle - Bordeaux Bègles	32:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
15.01.22	La Rochelle - Bath	39:21
19.12.20	La Rochelle - Bath	La Rochelle awarded

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