Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPEAN RUGBY CHAMPIONS CUP - ROUND 3

Date: 14 January 2024, Sunday

Location: Recreation Ground (Bath)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV6
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Bath		Racing Métro

	1	X	2
	1.62	21	2.38
	1.62	26	2.25
				Watch
	1.67	23	2.25
	1.64	21	2.39
	1.63	23	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.38)	22.8 ↑ (21)	2.32 ↓ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bath
56.3%

Draw
4%

Racing Métro
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.7%

4.4%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.9%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bath has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bath's form might have worsened.

Racing Métro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Racing Métro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bath than the current prediction. (+17.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bath, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Métro than the current prediction. (-13.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Racing Métro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Bath - Racing Métro Predictions

Users Predictions: Bath will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:24

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Preview

Bath is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Racing Métro is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Racing Métro could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Bath will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Bath to win the game is with odds 1.62.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bath Rugby
English Premiership Rugby
07.01.24	Bath - Gloucester	17:10 ✺
31.12.23	Leicester Tigers - Bath	35:22 ✺
23.12.23	Bath - Harlequins	25:17 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
16.12.23	Cardiff Rugby - Bath	32:39 ✺
09.12.23	Bath - Ulster	37:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWWW
- Racing Métro 92
French Top 14
06.01.24	Racing Métro - Castres	34:30 ✺
30.12.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Racing Métro	27:23 ✺
23.12.23	Racing Métro - Oyonnax Rugby	66:10 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
16.12.23	Ulster - Racing Métro	31:15 ✺
10.12.23	Racing Métro - Harlequins	28:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 WLWLL

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