Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 16

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Comunale di Monigo (Treviso)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	TG4 app Ireland, TG4 Ireland
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Benetton Treviso		Leinster

	1	X	2
	5	34	1.17
	5.2	29	1.16
	5.61	26.35	1.16	Watch
	5.5	29	1.17
	4.98	23	1.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.26 ↑ (3.61)	28.27 ↑ (22.75)	1.17 ↓ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benetton Treviso
17.6%

Draw
3.3%

Leinster
79.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.8%

4.1%

70.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

4.3%

67.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benetton Treviso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Benetton Treviso's form might have worsened.

Leinster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leinster's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benetton Treviso than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Benetton Treviso, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leinster than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leinster, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Benetton Treviso - Leinster Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:34

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 14)
2nd Half (24 - 12)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Benetton won 0.

Benetton has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leinster is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Benetton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Benetton has had a series of home games.

In this match, Leinster is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Benetton won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 273:668. (average 13.7:33.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Benetton won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 148:362. (average 13.5:32.9).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Leinster: 29.05%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
12	Benetton	2	0	1	1	38:41	3
13	Leinster	2	0	0	2	46:53	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Benetton Treviso rugby
United Rugby Championship
18.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Munster	15:45 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Exeter Chiefs	41:44 ✺
04.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Cardiff Rugby	38:35 ✺
United Rugby Championship
27.03.26	Glasgow Warriors - Benetton Treviso	31:10 ✺
21.03.26	Benetton Treviso - Ospreys	31:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLW
- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
17.04.26	Ulster - Leinster	21:29 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.04.26	Leinster - Sale Sharks	43:13 ✺
05.04.26	Leinster - Edinburgh	49:31 ✺
United Rugby Championship
27.03.26	Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets	36:19 ✺
21.03.26	Glasgow Warriors - Leinster	38:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
05.10.24	Benetton Treviso - Leinster	5:35
17.02.24	Leinster - Benetton Treviso	47:18
23.09.22	Leinster - Benetton Treviso	42:10
05.03.22	Benetton Treviso - Leinster	17:61
10.10.20	Benetton Treviso - Leinster	25:37
European Rugby Champions Cup
18.01.20	Benetton Treviso - Leinster	0:18
16.11.19	Leinster - Benetton Treviso	33:19

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