Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 10

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: HBF Park (Perth)

Referee: Keane R. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Western Force		Crusaders

	1	X	2
	2.2	21	1.73
	2.2	22	1.69
	2.2	19	1.73
	2.26	23	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (3.62)	21.25 ↑ (20.75)	1.71 ↑ (1.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Western Force
41.6%

Draw
4.3%

Crusaders
54%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.4%

4.4%

70.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

4.3%

71.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Western Force has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Western Force's performance.

Crusaders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Crusaders might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Western Force than the current prediction. (-16.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Western Force that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crusaders than the current prediction. (+17.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crusaders could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Western Force - Crusaders Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:31

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robertson T.	1. Brewis F.
2. Paenga-Amosa B.	2. Bell G.
3. Epenisa M.	3. Calder S.
4. Williams J.	4. Cahill T.
5. Swain D.	5. Hannah J.
6. Champion de Crespigny R.	6. Gardiner D.
7. Tizzano C.	7. Lee J.
8. Ekuasi V.	8. Lio-Willie C.
9. Robertson H.	9. Chapman L.
10. Donaldson B.	10. Kemara T.
11. Pietsch D.	11. Springer M.
12. Kuenzle B.	12. McLeod D.
13. Bridge G.	13. Faingaanuku L.
14. Lomax Z.	14. Fihaki C.
15. Grealy M.	15. McNicholl J.
Substitutes
16. Dolly N.	16. Letiu M.
17. Faagase S.	17. Bower G.
18. Johnson-Holmes H.	18. Sykes-Martin K.
19. Molina F.	19. Tucker W.
20. Harris W.	20. Kellow C.
21. Hastie N.	21. Hotham N.
22. Stewart H.	22. Reihana R.
23. Beale K.	23. Reece S.
Coaches
. Cron S.	. Penney R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 19)
5', Bell G. (Try),
6', Kemara T. (Conversion Goal),
16', Champion de Crespigny R. 🟨,
19', Faingaanuku L. (Try),
19', Kemara T. (Conversion Goal),
22', McNicholl J. (Try),
23', Kemara T. (Missed Conversion),
35', Robertson H. (Try),
36', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (24 - 7)
41', Brewis F. ↓, Bower G. ↑,
45', Robertson H. (Try),
46', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
46', Chapman L. ↓, Hotham N. ↑,
50', Kemara T. ↓, Reihana R. ↑,
54', Lomax Z. (Try),
55', Donaldson B. (Missed Conversion),
55', Epenisa M. ↓, Johnson-Holmes H. ↑,
55', Robertson T. ↓, Faagase S. ↑,
56', Swain D. ↓, Molina F. ↑,
58', Hotham N. (Try),
59', Reihana R. (Conversion Goal),
59', Robertson H. ↓, Hastie N. ↑,
59', Lomax Z. ↓, Stewart H. ↑,
59', Paenga-Amosa B. ↓, Dolly N. ↑,
60', Lee J. ↓, Mathis O. ↑,
63', Pietsch D. (Try),
63', Donaldson B. (Missed Conversion),
69', Bell G. ↓, Letiu M. ↑,
69', Calder S. ↓, Sykes-Martin K. ↑,
69', McNicholl J. ↓, Bell T. ↑,
71', Johnson-Holmes H. (Try),
72', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
72', Ekuasi V. ↓, Harris W. ↑,
74', Pietsch D. ↓, Beale K. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Western Force won 1.

Western Force has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Crusaders has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Crusaders may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Western Force has had a series of away games.

Crusaders is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Western Force won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 178:309. (average 17.8:30.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Western Force won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 87:102. (average 21.8:25.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Western Force Rugby
Super Rugby
11.04.26	Fijian Drua - Western Force	24:22 ✺
04.04.26	Reds - Western Force	19:42 ✺
28.03.26	Western Force - Chiefs	14:24 ✺
13.03.26	Hurricanes - Western Force	31:23 ✺
06.03.26	Highlanders - Western Force	39:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWLLL
- Crusaders Rugby
Super Rugby
11.04.26	Reds - Crusaders	31:26 ✺
03.04.26	Crusaders - Fijian Drua	69:26 ✺
21.03.26	Moana Pasifika - Crusaders	21:50 ✺
14.03.26	Crusaders - Highlanders	29:18 ✺
07.03.26	Blues - Crusaders	29:13 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
14.03.25	Crusaders - Western Force	55:33
20.04.24	Western Force - Crusaders	37:15
06.05.23	Crusaders - Western Force	48:13
07.05.22	Western Force - Crusaders	15:53
04.06.21	Crusaders - Western Force	29:21
24.03.17	Crusaders - Western Force	45:17
08.04.16	Western Force - Crusaders	19:20

Western Force - Crusaders: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide