Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 8

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Buller		Horowhenua-Kapiti

	1	X	2
	4.6	35	1.18
	4.82	23	1.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.71 ↑ (4.27)	29 ↓ (31)	1.19 ↓ (1.22)

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Buller
19.5%

Draw
3.2%

Horowhenua-Kapiti
77.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.6%

75.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Buller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Horowhenua-Kapiti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 19)
2nd Half (5 - 33)

Preview

Buller is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Horowhenua-Kapiti is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Buller may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Horowhenua-Kapiti for this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Buller has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 103:138 (averaging 25.8:34.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Buller against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 26:30 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Buller Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
25.09.26	King Country - Buller	59:12
18.09.26	Buller - Wairarapa Bush	21:25 ✺
11.09.26	Buller - West Coast	38:31 ✺
04.09.26	Mid Canterbury - Buller	43:35
28.08.26	South Canterbury - Buller	73:10
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLWLL
- Horowhenua-Kapiti Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
18.09.26	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Thames Valley	57:26 ✺
11.09.26	East Coast - Horowhenua-Kapiti	34:50 ✺
04.09.26	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Whanganui	19:17 ✺
28.08.26	Wairarapa Bush - Horowhenua-Kapiti	46:31 ✺
21.08.26	Poverty Bay - Horowhenua-Kapiti	12:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
15.08.25	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Buller	59:14
13.09.19	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Buller	31:46
20.10.17	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Buller	18:17
13.10.17	Buller - Horowhenua-Kapiti	26:30

Buller - Horowhenua-Kapiti: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide