Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 6

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday


	Horowhenua-Kapiti		Thames Valley

	1	X	2
	2.17	22	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 (2.17)	22 (22)	1.72 (1.72)

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Horowhenua-Kapiti
42.4%

Draw
4.2%

Thames Valley
53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

3.9%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Horowhenua-Kapiti have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Thames Valley have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Horowhenua-Kapiti than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thames Valley than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

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Preview

In recent outings, Horowhenua-Kapiti has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Thames Valley is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Horowhenua-Kapiti has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 126:132 (averaging 25.2:26.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Horowhenua-Kapiti against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 24:38 goals (averaging 12:19 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
4	Thames Valley	8	5	0	3	384:314	29
6	Horowhenua	8	5	0	3	310:251	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Horowhenua-Kapiti Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
11.09.26	East Coast - Horowhenua-Kapiti	34:50 ✺
04.09.26	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Whanganui	19:17 ✺
28.08.26	Wairarapa Bush - Horowhenua-Kapiti	46:31 ✺
21.08.26	Poverty Bay - Horowhenua-Kapiti	12:29 ✺
14.08.26	Horowhenua-Kapiti - King Country	41:45 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WWLWL
- Thames Valley Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
11.09.26	Thames Valley - Poverty Bay	57:31
04.09.26	Thames Valley - Wairarapa Bush	47:36 ✺
28.08.26	West Coast - Thames Valley	35:59
21.08.26	King Country - Thames Valley	12:19 ✺
14.08.26	Thames Valley - Buller	89:26
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
04.10.24	Thames Valley - Horowhenua-Kapiti	35:41
22.10.21	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Thames Valley	11:28
05.10.18	Thames Valley - Horowhenua-Kapiti	29:27
08.09.17	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Thames Valley	13:10
26.08.16	Thames Valley - Horowhenua-Kapiti	30:34

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