Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPEAN RUGBY CHAMPIONS CUP - ROUND 3

Date: 13 January 2024, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Cardiff Rugby		Harlequins

	1	X	2
	3.5	23	1.33
	3.3	21	1.33
				Watch
	3.2	23	1.36
	3.31	23	1.37
	3.1	24	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↓ (3.36)	22.8 ↑ (21)	1.35 ↓ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
28%

Draw
4%

Harlequins
67.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

4.4%

68.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

4.5%

66.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Harlequins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Rugby than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harlequins than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Cardiff Rugby - Harlequins Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:31

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Preview

Cardiff is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Harlequins is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Harlequins could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Harlequins is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cardiff won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 131-150.

Including matches at home between the teams Cardiff won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 88-73.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
01.01.24	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	27:21 ✺
26.12.23	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	55:21 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
16.12.23	Cardiff Rugby - Bath	32:39 ✺
09.12.23	Toulouse - Cardiff Rugby	52:7 ✺
United Rugby Championship
02.12.23	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	23:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLL
- Harlequin FC
English Premiership Rugby
05.01.24	Newcastle Red Bulls - Harlequins	3:24 ✺
30.12.23	Harlequins - Gloucester	32:26 ✺
23.12.23	Bath - Harlequins	25:17 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.12.23	Harlequins - Toulouse	19:47 ✺
10.12.23	Racing Métro - Harlequins	28:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
14.01.22	Cardiff Rugby - Harlequins	33:36
18.12.21	Harlequins - Cardiff Rugby	43:17
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.16	Harlequins - Cardiff Rugby	34:26
19.11.15	Cardiff Rugby - Harlequins	20:32
LV= Cup
31.01.14	Cardiff Rugby - Harlequins	35:5

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