Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 7

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	TG4 app Ireland, TG4 Ireland
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Newport Gwent Dragons		Connacht

	1	X	2
	3.75	23	1.29
	3.9	24	1.26
	3.81	20.48	1.31	Watch
	3.75	23	1.29
	3.77	23	1.3
	3.8	21	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (3.04)	22.41 ↑ (20.55)	1.29 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport Gwent Dragons
24.3%

Draw
4.1%

Connacht
71.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.5%

4.5%

64.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport Gwent Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newport Gwent Dragons's form might have worsened.

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Connacht's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Newport Gwent Dragons - Connacht Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Connacht will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 18:28

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (28 - 7)
2nd Half (20 - 21)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 1.

In this match, Connacht is a strong favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 303:420. (average 16.8:23.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Dragons won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 191:231. (average 19.1:23.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport Gwent Dragons
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Lyon	23:21 ✺
07.12.25	Perpignan - Newport Gwent Dragons	41:17 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.11.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Leinster	10:24 ✺
25.10.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	19:19 ✺
17.10.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	17:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLLTL
- Connacht Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Connacht - Black Lion	52:0 ✺
07.12.25	Ospreys - Connacht	24:21 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.11.25	Connacht - Sharks	44:17 ✺
25.10.25	Munster - Connacht	17:15 ✺
17.10.25	Connacht - Blue Bulls	27:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
26.10.24	Connacht - Newport Gwent Dragons	31:7
27.04.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Connacht	27:34
04.03.23	Newport Gwent Dragons - Connacht	20:22
09.10.21	Connacht - Newport Gwent Dragons	22:35
05.02.21	Newport Gwent Dragons - Connacht	20:30
11.10.19	Newport Gwent Dragons - Connacht	14:38
03.11.18	Connacht - Newport Gwent Dragons	33:5

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