Match Info

EUROPE: European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 2

Date: 13 December 2024, Friday

Location: Stade Pierre-Fabre (Castres)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Germany	More Than Sports TV
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Fight
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Castres		Munster

	1	X	2
	1.67	19	2.25
	1.67	21	2.25
	1.68	21	2.28
	1.69	22.23	2.31	Watch
	1.67	23	2.25
	1.59	31	2.39	Watch
	1.68	21	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.97)	22.6 ↑ (21.62)	2.29 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castres
55.5%

Draw
4.1%

Munster
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

4.3%

48.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

4.1%

46.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Castres's performance.

Munster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Munster might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castres than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castres that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Munster than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Munster could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Castres - Munster Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Munster will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walcker Q.	1. Bleuler D.
2. Barlot G.	2. Scannell N.
3. Collier W.	3. Archer S.
4. Maravat G.	4. Wycherley F.
5. Nakarawa L.	5. Beirne T. (C)
6. Babillot M. (C)	6. O'Mahony P.
7. Ardron T.	7. Hodnett J.
8. Papalii A.	8. Gleeson B.
9. Fernandez J.	9. Casey C.
10. Le Brun L.	10. Crowley J.
11. Baget R.	11. Abrahams T.
12. Cocagi A.	12. Nankivell A.
13. Goodhue J.	13. Farrell T.
14. Palis G.	14. Nash C.
15. Dumora J.	15. Haley M.
Substitutes
16. Zarantonello L.	16. Barron D.
17. de Benedittis W.	17. Kilcoyne D.
18. Corato N.	18. Jager O.
19. Jedrasiak P.	19. Ahern T.
20. Tukino F.	20. Kendellen A.
21. Arata S.	21. Patterson P.
22. Chabouni T.	22. Scannell R.
23. Seguret A.	23. O'Donoghue J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 7)
13', Papalii A. (Try),
30', Walcker Q. (Try),
33', Walcker Q. 🟨,
38', Hodnett J. (Try),
39', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (6 - 7)
49', Fernandez J. (Penalty Goal),
68', Hodnett J. (Try),
69', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
73', Le Brun L. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Castres won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Our prediction for today's Castres to win the game is with odds 1.76.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Castres won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 64:142 (average 10.7:23.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Castres won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 43:45 (average 14.3:15).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castres Olympique
European Rugby Champions Cup
07.12.24	Northampton Saints - Castres	38:8 ✺
French Top 14
30.11.24	Clermont - Castres	54:10 ✺
23.11.24	Castres - La Rochelle	28:24 ✺
02.11.24	Castres - Montpellier	30:26 ✺
26.10.24	Vannes - Castres	34:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLWWL
- Munster Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
07.12.24	Munster - Stade Français	33:7 ✺
United Rugby Championship
30.11.24	Munster - Lions	17:10 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
02.11.24	Munster - New Zealand B	24:38 ✺
United Rugby Championship
26.10.24	Sharks - Munster	41:24 ✺
19.10.24	Stormers - Munster	34:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
14.01.22	Castres - Munster	13:16
18.12.21	Munster - Castres	19:13
15.12.18	Castres - Munster	13:12
09.12.18	Munster - Castres	30:5
21.01.18	Munster - Castres	48:3
15.10.17	Castres - Munster	17:17

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