Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 1

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Location: Dexcom Stadium (Galway)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand
Ireland	TG4 app Ireland, TG4 Ireland
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, URC


	Connacht		Stormers

	1	X	2
	1.29	21	3.75
	1.28	22	3.85
	1.31	22.47	3.68	Watch
	1.25	30	4.15
	1.32	23	3.56
	1.27	24	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.49)	23.75 ↑ (20.7)	3.8 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connacht
71.8%

Draw
3.9%

Stormers
24.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.2%

4.5%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Connacht's performance.

Stormers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stormers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Connacht - Stormers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:25

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 10)
2nd Half (3 - 19)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Connacht won 1.

Connacht carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Connacht has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 133:172 (averaging 22.2:28.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Connacht against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 31:33 goals (averaging 15.5:16.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
4	Stormers	3	2	0	1	81:54	11
14	Connacht	3	1	0	2	56:84	5

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Stormers: 16.63% Connacht: 1.22%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
29.05.26	Glasgow Warriors - Connacht	33:21 ✺
15.05.26	Edinburgh - Connacht	5:26 ✺
09.05.26	Connacht - Munster	26:7 ✺
25.04.26	Lions - Connacht	33:21 ✺
18.04.26	Stormers - Connacht	24:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.9 LWWLW
- Stormers Rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
07.08.26	Stormers - New Zealand	21:38 ✺
United Rugby Championship
06.06.26	Leinster - Stormers	20:11 ✺
30.05.26	Stormers - Cardiff Rugby	44:21 ✺
15.05.26	Cardiff Rugby - Stormers	22:16 ✺
08.05.26	Ulster - Stormers	38:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
18.04.26	Stormers - Connacht	24:33
19.04.25	Stormers - Connacht	34:29
18.05.24	Connacht - Stormers	12:16
13.05.23	Stormers - Connacht	43:25
24.09.22	Stormers - Connacht	38:15
26.02.22	Connacht - Stormers	19:17

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