Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 18

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Edinburgh Rugby Stadium (Edinburgh)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	Edinburgh		Connacht

	1	X	2
	2.63	21	1.5
	2.7	20	1.49
	2.73	18.01	1.53	Watch
	2.8	21	1.4
	2.81	18	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.63)	19.6 ↓ (22.5)	1.49 ↓ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Edinburgh
33.6%

Draw
4.7%

Connacht
61.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

4.1%

60.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

62.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Edinburgh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Edinburgh than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Connacht than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Edinburgh - Connacht Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:29

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 19)
2nd Half (5 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Edinburgh won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Connacht could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Edinburgh won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 459:381. (average 24.2:20.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Edinburgh won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 287:194. (average 28.7:19.4).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Connacht: 1.52% Edinburgh: 1.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
4	Edinburgh	2	2	0	0	51:42	9
10	Connacht	2	1	0	1	37:48	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Edinburgh Rugby
United Rugby Championship
09.05.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Edinburgh	15:24 ✺
24.04.26	Edinburgh - Sharks	33:28 ✺
17.04.26	Edinburgh - Zebre	31:30 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
05.04.26	Leinster - Edinburgh	49:31 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Stormers - Edinburgh	33:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWLL
- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
09.05.26	Connacht - Munster	26:7 ✺
25.04.26	Lions - Connacht	33:21 ✺
18.04.26	Stormers - Connacht	24:33 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.04.26	Montpellier - Connacht	45:22 ✺
03.04.26	Connacht - Sharks	29:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
10.05.25	Connacht - Edinburgh	21:31
11.11.23	Edinburgh - Connacht	25:22
25.03.23	Connacht - Edinburgh	41:26
04.03.22	Edinburgh - Connacht	56:8
13.03.21	Connacht - Edinburgh	14:15
25.10.20	Edinburgh - Connacht	26:37
21.02.20	Edinburgh - Connacht	41:14

Upcoming Matches