Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 17

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Ravenhill Stadium (Belfast)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Ulster		Stormers

	1	X	2
	2.05	21	1.83
	1.95	22	1.88
	1.99	20.62	1.91	Watch
	2.1	21	1.75
	2	21	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.27)	21.12 ↑ (20.11)	1.86 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulster
45.8%

Draw
4.4%

Stormers
49.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

4.6%

54.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

4.5%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Stormers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulster than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ulster that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stormers than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stormers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ulster - Stormers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:27

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 17)
2nd Half (17 - 21)

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Stormers may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

Stormers could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 115:92. (average 23:18.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulster won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 73:39. (average 36.5:19.5).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Stormers: 16.77% Ulster: 3.51%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
8	Stormers	2	1	0	1	42:32	6
11	Ulster	2	0	1	1	62:67	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulster Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
02.05.26	Ulster - Exeter Chiefs	29:12 ✺
United Rugby Championship
25.04.26	Munster - Ulster	41:14 ✺
17.04.26	Ulster - Leinster	21:29 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.04.26	Ulster - La Rochelle	41:24 ✺
04.04.26	Ulster - Ospreys	28:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLWW
- Stormers Rugby
United Rugby Championship
25.04.26	Stormers - Glasgow Warriors	48:12 ✺
18.04.26	Stormers - Connacht	24:33 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
04.04.26	Toulon - Stormers	28:27 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Stormers - Edinburgh	33:14 ✺
22.03.26	Stormers - Newport Gwent Dragons	29:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
28.03.25	Ulster - Stormers	38:34
30.03.24	Stormers - Ulster	13:7
27.01.23	Ulster - Stormers	35:5
11.06.22	Stormers - Ulster	17:15
26.03.22	Stormers - Ulster	23:20

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