Match Info

EUROPE: Challenge Cup - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 4 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Kingsholm Stadium (Gloucester)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	beIN Sports
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Gloucester		Benetton Treviso

	1	X	2
	1.53	21	2.63
	1.57	21	2.5
	1.62	15	2.5
	1.5	23	2.62
	1.59	20	2.49
	1.58	23	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.38)	20.5 ↓ (22)	2.53 ↓ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gloucester
59%

Draw
4.5%

Benetton Treviso
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.9%

4.2%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gloucester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gloucester's form might have worsened.

Benetton Treviso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Benetton Treviso's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gloucester than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benetton Treviso than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benetton Treviso, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Gloucester - Benetton Treviso Predictions

Users Predictions: Gloucester will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vivas M.	1. Gallo T.
2. Blake S.	2. Nicotera G.
3. Gotovtsev K.	3. Ferrari S.
4. Clarke F.	4. Scrafton S.
5. Thomas F.	5. Snyman E.
6. Ackermann R.	6. Negri S.
7. Ludlow L. (C)	7. Lamaro M. (C)
8. Mercer Z.	8. Halafihi T.
9. Englefield C.	9. Garbisi A.
10. Hastings A.	10. Albornoz T.
11. Thorley O.	11. Ratave O.
12. Atkinson S.	12. Brex N.
13. Harris C.	13. Menoncello T.
14. May J.	14. Mendy I.
15. Hathaway J.	15. Smith R.
Substitutes
16. Socino S.	16. Lucchesi G.
17. Ford-Robinson J.	17. Spagnolo M.
18. Knight C.	18. Zilocchi G.
19. Tuisue A.	19. Cannone N.
20. Clement J.	20. Iachizzi E.
21. Varney S.	21. Izekor A.
22. Atkinson C.	22. Uren A.
23. Hearle A.	23. Marin L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (15 - 11)
5', Hastings A. (Missed Conversion),
5', Hathaway J. (Try),
15', Albornoz T. (Penalty Goal),
19', Hastings A. (Penalty Goal),
23', Albornoz T. (Penalty Goal),
28', Blake S. (Try),
29', Hastings A. (Conversion Goal),
31', Hastings A. (Missed Penalty),
35', Mercer Z. 🟨,
39', Hastings A. (Missed Drop Goal),
40+1', Smith R. (Try),
40+2', Albornoz T. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (25 - 12)
48', Hastings A. (Penalty Goal),
53', Lucchesi G. (Try),
55', Albornoz T. (Missed Conversion),
57', Hastings A. (Try),
59', Hastings A. (Conversion Goal),
61', Clarke F. (Try),
62', Hastings A. (Conversion Goal),
66', Lucchesi G. (Try),
67', Albornoz T. (Conversion Goal),
69', Englefield C. (Penalty Goal),
77', Thorley O. (Try),

Preview

Recent matches Gloucester is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Benetton is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Gloucester could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

Gloucester will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Gloucester to win the game is with odds 1.52.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Gloucester won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 132-33.

Including matches at home between the teams Gloucester won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 91-33.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gloucester Rugby
English Premiership Rugby
28.04.24	Gloucester - Exeter Chiefs	17:38 ✺
20.04.24	Saracens - Gloucester	46:24 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.04.24	Gloucester - Ospreys	23:13 ✺
05.04.24	Gloucester - Castres	30:25 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
30.03.24	Gloucester - Bristol Rugby	24:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWWL
- Benetton Treviso rugby
United Rugby Championship
26.04.24	Ulster - Benetton Treviso	38:34 ✺
20.04.24	Benetton Treviso - Newport Gwent Dragons	36:19 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.04.24	Benetton Treviso - Connacht	39:24 ✺
06.04.24	Benetton Treviso - Lions	27:17 ✺
United Rugby Championship
30.03.24	Benetton Treviso - Connacht	18:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
17.12.21	Gloucester - Benetton Treviso	54:25
14.01.17	Benetton Treviso - Gloucester	0:41
22.10.16	Gloucester - Benetton Treviso	37:8

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