Match Info

EUROPE: Challenge Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 April 2024, Friday

Location: Kingsholm Stadium (Gloucester)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	beIN Sports
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV6
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Gloucester		Ospreys

	1	X	2
	1.36	23	3.25
	1.4	26	2.9
	1.44	15	3.1
	1.33	23	3.4
	1.31	26	3.61
	1.38	24	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↑ (1.36)	22.83 ↑ (19.8)	3.22 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gloucester
67.3%

Draw
4%

Ospreys
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

4.6%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.8%

4.3%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gloucester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gloucester than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gloucester, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Gloucester - Ospreys Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Gloucester will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ford-Robinson J.	1. Thomas G.
2. Blake S.	2. Parry S.
3. Gotovtsev K.	3. Botha T.
4. Clarke F.	4. Ratti J.
5. Thomas F.	5. Beard A.
6. Ackermann R.	6. Deaves-Small H.
7. Ludlow L. (C)	7. Tipuric J. (C)
8. Mercer Z.	8. Morris M.
9. Varney S.	9. Morgan-Williams R.
10. Hastings A.	10. Williams O.
11. Morris J.	11. Giles K.
12. Atkinson S.	12. Watkin O.
13. Llewellyn M.	13. Williams K.
14. May J.	14. Morgan L.
15. Carreras S.	15. Walsh J.
Substitutes
16. Socino S.	16. Lloyd L.
17. Vivas M.	17. Smith N.
18. Balmain F.	18. Henry R.
19. Tuisue A.	19. Sutton H.
20. Clement J.	20. Morse M.
21. Englefield C.	21. Davies L.
22. Atkinson C.	22. Edwards D.
23. Harris C.	23. Nagy M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 13)
6', Carreras S. (Penalty Goal),
13', Giles K. (Try),
14', Williams O. (Conversion Goal),
18', Carreras S. (Penalty Goal),
21', Williams O. (Missed Drop Goal),
22', Williams O. (Penalty Goal),
30', Blake S. (Try),
31', Carreras S. (Missed Conversion),
34', Carreras S. (Penalty Goal),
40', Williams O. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (9 - 0)
50', Carreras S. (Penalty Goal),
60', Carreras S. (Penalty Goal),
65', Carreras S. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Gloucester is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Ospreys is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

In this match Gloucester is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Gloucester to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Gloucester won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 75-45.

Including matches at home between the teams Gloucester won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 75-45.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gloucester Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
05.04.24	Gloucester - Castres	30:25 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
30.03.24	Gloucester - Bristol Rugby	24:33 ✺
22.03.24	Leicester Tigers - Gloucester	25:27 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
15.03.24	Gloucester - Leicester Tigers	23:13 ✺
17.02.24	Gloucester - Exeter Chiefs	17:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLWWW
- Ospreys Premiership Select
Challenge Cup Rugby
06.04.24	Ospreys - Sale Sharks	23:15 ✺
United Rugby Championship
30.03.24	Ospreys - Lions	36:21 ✺
22.03.24	Ospreys - Munster	17:27 ✺
01.03.24	Edinburgh - Ospreys	19:15 ✺
18.02.24	Ospreys - Ulster	19:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Anglo-Welsh Cup
26.01.18	Gloucester - Ospreys	43:20
LV= Cup
31.01.15	Gloucester - Ospreys	32:25

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