Match Info
Six Nations - Round 4Date: 6 March 2026, FridayLocation: Aviva Stadium (Dublin)Referee: Dickson K. (Eng)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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Africa | SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby |
Asia | Premier Sports Rugby Asia |
Australia | Stan Sport |
Czech-republic | Nova Sport 6, Oneplay |
Denmark | Viaplay |
Finland | Viaplay |
France | France 3 |
Iceland | Viaplay |
Ireland | RTE 2, RTE News, RTE Player |
Malta | TSN Malta 1 |
Netherlands | Ziggo Sport 5 |
New-zealand | Sky Sport 1 |
Nigeria | SuperSport Rugby |
Norway | Viaplay |
Portugal | Sport TV5 |
Romania | Digi Sport 3 |
Slovakia | Nova Sport 6, Voyo |
South-africa | SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby |
Spain | Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1 |
Sweden | Viaplay |
United-kingdom | BBC iPlayer, ITV 1, ITV X, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, STV, STV Player, UTV |
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Ireland |
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Wales |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.03 |
67 |
15 |
|
 |
1.03 |
40 |
11 |
|
 |
1.04 |
28.32 |
12.18 |
Watch |
 |
1.02 |
41 |
12 |
|
 |
1.03 |
26 |
14.9 |
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Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.03 ↑ (1.01) |
40.46 ↓ (45.7) |
13.02 ↓ (14.5) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 54.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-25)
- The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Ireland 90.5% | Draw 2.3% | Wales 7.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ireland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)Wales has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)Ireland - Wales Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +24.5 - Wales (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -25.5 - Ireland (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ireland (votes: 1 - 50%). Wales (votes: 1 - 50%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 40:15 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
|---|
1. O'Toole T.
| 1. Carre R.
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2. Kelleher R.
| 2. Lake D. (C)
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3. Furlong T.
| 3. Francis T.
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4. Ryan J.
| 4. Jenkins D.
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5. Beirne T.
| 5. Carter B.
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6. Conan J.
| 6. Mann A.
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7. Timoney N.
| 7. Botham J.
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8. Sweetman-Doris C. (C)
| 8. Wainwright A.
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9. Gibson-Park J.
| 9. Williams T.
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10. Crowley J.
| 10. Edwards D.
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11. Stockdale J.
| 11. Adams J.
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12. McCloskey S.
| 12. Hawkins J.
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13. Ringrose G.
| 13. James E.
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14. Baloucoune R.
| 14. Mee E.
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15. Osborne J.
| 15. Rees-Zammit L.
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| Substitutes |
|---|
16. Stewart T.
| 16. Elias R.
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17. Milne M.
| 17. Smith N.
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18. Clarkson T.
| 18. Griffin A.
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19. McCarthy J.
| 19. Beard A.
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20. van der Flier J.
| 20. Cracknell O.
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21. Doak N.
| 21. Hardy K.
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22. Farrell T.
| 22. Evans J.
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23. Frawley C.
| 23. Hennessey-Booth L.
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| Coaches |
|---|
. Farrell A.
| . Tandy S.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (12 - 10)
- 6', Stockdale J. (Try),
- 7', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
- 17', Edwards D. (Penalty Goal),
- 24', Gibson-Park J. ↓, Doak N. ↑,
- 32', Doak N. ↓, Gibson-Park J. ↑,
- 36', Crowley J. (Try),
- 37', Crowley J. (Missed Conversion),
- 40+2', Carre R. (Try),
- 40+3', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (15 - 7)
- 44', Conan J. (Try),
- 45', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
- 45', Carre R. ↓, Smith N. ↑,
- 45', Wainwright A. ↓, Cracknell O. ↑,
- 57', Lake D. ↓, Elias R. ↑,
- 57', Francis T. ↓, Griffin A. ↑,
- 57', Carter B. ↓, Beard A. ↑,
- 60', Furlong T. ↓, Clarkson T. ↑,
- 60', Ryan J. ↓, McCarthy J. ↑,
- 60', Timoney N. ↓, van der Flier J. ↑,
- 63', Botham J. (Try),
- 63', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
- 64', Kelleher R. ↓, Stewart T. ↑,
- 64', O'Toole T. ↓, Milne M. ↑,
- 67', Osborne J. (Try),
- 68', Crowley J. (Missed Conversion),
- 69', Williams T. 🟨,
- 70', Ringrose G. ↓, Farrell T. ↑,
- 70', Mee E. ↓, Hennessey-Booth L. ↑,
- 70', Stockdale J. ↓, Frawley C. ↑,
- 76', Gibson-Park J. ↓, Doak N. ↑,
- 77', Crowley J. (Penalty Goal),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ireland won 4. In this match, Ireland is the undeniable favorite.In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Ireland won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 420:288. (average 23.3:16).Including home matches between the teams, Ireland won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 224:109. (average 24.9:12.1).
Standings
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
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| 3 | Ireland | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 135:117 | 19 |
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| 6 | Wales | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 76:195 | 3 |
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Six Nations | | | 22.02.25 | Wales - Ireland | 18:27 | | 24.02.24 | Ireland - Wales | 31:7 | | 04.02.23 | Wales - Ireland | 10:34 | | 05.02.22 | Ireland - Wales | 29:7 | | 07.02.21 | Wales - Ireland | 21:16 | | Autumn Nations Cup Rugby | | | 13.11.20 | Ireland - Wales | 32:9 | | Six Nations | | | 08.02.20 | Ireland - Wales | 24:14 |
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