Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 5

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Aviva Stadium (Dublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Leinster		Zebre

	1	X	2
	1.02	51	13
	1.02	45	12
				Watch
	1.02	50	21
	1.01	34	13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↑ (1.01)	45 ↓ (50.5)	14.75 ↓ (26.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-23)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leinster
91.6%

Draw
2.1%

Zebre
6.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

94.5%

1.9%

3.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Zebre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Leinster - Zebre Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 39:16

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (26 - 21)
2nd Half (24 - 5)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 5.

In this match, Leinster is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 19 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 745:191. (average 39.2:10.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leinster won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 438:47. (average 48.7:5.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
18.10.25	Leinster - Munster	14:31 ✺
11.10.25	Leinster - Sharks	31:5 ✺
04.10.25	Blue Bulls - Leinster	39:31 ✺
26.09.25	Stormers - Leinster	35:0 ✺
14.06.25	Leinster - Blue Bulls	32:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LWLLW
- Zebre Rugby
United Rugby Championship
18.10.25	Zebre - Stormers	13:31 ✺
11.10.25	Ospreys - Zebre	24:0 ✺
05.10.25	Zebre - Lions	22:20 ✺
27.09.25	Zebre - Edinburgh	31:28 ✺
17.05.25	Zebre - Connacht	12:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
10.05.25	Leinster - Zebre	76:5
23.03.24	Zebre - Leinster	7:31
17.09.22	Zebre - Leinster	29:33
09.10.21	Leinster - Zebre	43:7
12.03.21	Zebre - Leinster	31:48
23.10.20	Leinster - Zebre	63:8
26.10.19	Zebre - Leinster	0:3

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