Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Aviva Stadium (Dublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Europe	TV5 Monde Europe
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, France 2
Malta	TSN Malta 1
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	Movistar Deportes
Portugal	Sport TV7
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Spain	M+ Deportes
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Leinster		Toulon

	1	X	2
	1.25	26	4
	1.2	30	4.4
	1.19	25.93	4.97	Watch
	1.2	29	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↓ (1.24)	27.73 ↑ (23.08)	4.53 ↑ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leinster
76.3%

Draw
3.3%

Toulon
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

74.5%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leinster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Leinster - Toulon Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Porter A.	1. Gros J.
2. Sheehan D.	2. Baubigny T.
3. Clarkson T.	3. Sinckler K.
4. McCarthy J.	4. Mezou C.
5. Ryan J.	5. Ribbans D. (C)
6. Conan J.	6. Kpoku J.
7. van der Flier J.	7. Ollivon C.
8. Sweetman-Doris C. (C)	8. Shioshvili M.
9. Gibson-Park J.	9. White B.
10. Byrne H.	10. Albornoz T.
11. Ioane R.	11. Tuicuvu S.
12. Henshaw R.	12. Sinzelle J.
13. Ringrose G.	13. Brex N.
14. O'Brien T.	14. Drean G.
15. Keenan H.	15. Jaminet M.
Substitutes
16. Kelleher R.	16. Lucchesi G.
17. Cahir J.	17. Brennan D.
18. Slimani R.	18. Gigashvili B.
19. Soroka A.	19. Halagahu M.
20. Penny S.	20. Mercer Z.
21. McGrath L.	21. Serin B.
22. Prendergast S.	22. Abadie E.
23. Osborne J.	23. Ferte M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 11)
13', Conan J. (Try),
14', Byrne H. (Conversion Goal),
16', Jaminet M. (Penalty Goal),
26', Jaminet M. (Penalty Goal),
33', van der Flier J. (Try),
33', Byrne H. (Conversion Goal),
36', Porter A. 🟨,
37', Tuicuvu S. (Try),
37', Byrne H. 🟨,
2nd Half (15 - 14)
43', 🟨,
44', Baubigny T. 🟨,
44', Ringrose G. (Try),
49', Byrne H. (Penalty Goal),
67', Sweetman-Doris C. (Try),
67', Byrne H. (Conversion Goal),
69', Serin B. (Try),
70', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
76', Drean G. (Try),
77', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Toulon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Leinster is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 54:98. (average 10.8:19.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Leinster won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:20. (average 8:10).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
25.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Leinster	29:26 ✺
17.04.26	Ulster - Leinster	21:29 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.04.26	Leinster - Sale Sharks	43:13 ✺
05.04.26	Leinster - Edinburgh	49:31 ✺
United Rugby Championship
27.03.26	Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets	36:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWWW
- RC Toulonnais
French Top 14
25.04.26	Toulon - Aviron Bayonnais	52:26 ✺
18.04.26	Montauban - Toulon	22:47 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.04.26	Glasgow Warriors - Toulon	19:22 ✺
04.04.26	Toulon - Stormers	28:27 ✺
French Top 14
28.03.26	Perpignan - Toulon	34:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
02.04.21	Leinster - Toulon	Leinster awarded
19.12.15	Leinster - Toulon	16:20
13.12.15	Toulon - Leinster	24:9
19.04.15	Toulon - Leinster	25:15 OT
Heineken Cup
06.04.14	Toulon - Leinster	29:14

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