Match Info

Top 14 - Round 15

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Mayol (Toulon)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Toulon		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.25	23	4.2
	1.24	23	4.1
	1.25	23.88	4.43	Watch
	1.3	23	3.5
	1.21	20	4.57
	1.28	31	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↑ (1.15)	23.98 ↓ (25.06)	4.11 ↓ (6.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulon
73.6%

Draw
3.9%

Montpellier
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

81.6%

3.7%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toulon's form might have worsened.

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montpellier's recent form is better than expected.

Toulon - Montpellier Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 53.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 50.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Priso D.	1. Erdocio B.
2. Baubigny T.	2. Tolofua C.
3. Sinckler K.	3. Hounkpatin W.
4. Ribbans D.	4. Verhaeghe F.
5. Alainu'uese B.	5. Duguid T.
6. Ludlam L.	6. Nouchi L. (C)
7. Abadie E.	7. Becognee A.
8. Ollivon C. (C)	8. Vunipola V.
9. Serin B.	9. Price A.
10. Albornoz T.	10. Miotti H.
11. Ferte M.	11. Taofifenua D.
12. Cowie O.	12. Piccardo J.
13. Brex N.	13. Vincent A.
14. Drean G.	14. Ngandebe G.
15. Domon M.	15. Banks T.
Substitutes
16. Damond P.	16. Uelese J.
17. Gros J. B.	17. Forletta E.
18. Javakhia G.	18. Chalureau B.
19. Kpoku J.	19. Masibaka A.
20. Mercer Z.	20. Coly L.
21. White B.	21. Hogg S.
22. Sinzelle J.	22. Cadot A.
23. Gigashvili B.	23. Welsch V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (16 - 17)
4', Domon M. (Penalty Goal),
10', Hounkpatin W. (Try),
10', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
18', Ludlam L. 🟨,
22', Domon M. (Penalty Goal),
26', Hounkpatin W. (Try),
26', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
32', Domon M. (Penalty Goal),
32', Becognee A. 🟨,
39', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
40', Drean G. (Try),
40', Domon M. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 10)
49', Domon M. (Try),
49', Domon M. (Conversion Goal),
55', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
65', Gigashvili B. (Try),
65', Domon M. (Conversion Goal),
70', Uelese J. (Try),
70', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulon won 4.

Recent performances by Toulon have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Montpellier is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Toulon is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulon won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 491:464. (average 24.6:23.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulon won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 284:186. (average 28.4:18.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
5	Montpellier	5	3	0	2	141:92	14
13	RC Toulonnais	5	1	0	4	101:115	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Toulonnais
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Gloucester - Toulon	14:31 ✺
11.01.26	Toulon - Munster	27:25 ✺
French Top 14
04.01.26	La Rochelle - Toulon	66:0 ✺
28.12.25	Toulon - Perpignan	31:16 ✺
21.12.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulon	46:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WWLWL
- Montpellier Hérault RC
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Ospreys - Montpellier	26:31 ✺
11.01.26	Montpellier - Connacht	33:31 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais	62:22 ✺
28.12.25	Section Paloise - Montpellier	35:33 ✺
20.12.25	Montpellier - Castres	33:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
06.09.25	Montpellier - Toulon	17:27
15.02.25	Montpellier - Toulon	30:38
19.10.24	Toulon - Montpellier	30:17
23.03.24	Toulon - Montpellier	54:7
07.01.24	Montpellier - Toulon	27:17
04.02.23	Montpellier - Toulon	18:20
06.11.22	Toulon - Montpellier	16:26

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