Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 3

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand
United-kingdom	FloSports app
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Lions		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1.11	34	6.5
	1.16	30	5
	1.19	28.96	4.91	Watch
	1.17	29	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.16 ↓ (1.17)	30.49 ↑ (27.34)	5.35 ↑ (5.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-14)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lions
79.7%

Draw
3%

Lyon
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

79.2%

3.4%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Lions - Lyon Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 35:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Davids E.	1. Kaabeche H.
2. Botha P.	2. Sarragallet M.
3. van Vuuren C.	3. Gomes Sa C.
4. Sjoblom D.	4. Lambey F.
5. Delport R.	5. Geraci K.
6. Du Plessis R.	6. Deliance A. (C)
7. Qoma S.	7. Shvangiradze B.
8. Horn F. (C)	8. Botha A.
9. van den Berg M.	9. Gonzalez E.
10. Smith C.	10. Jackson P.
11. Davids A.	11. Mathiron A.
12. Mills B.	12. Maraku J.
13. Cronje E.	13. Parisien A.
14. Kriel R.	14. Mignot C.
15. Horn Q.	15. Tchaptchet A.
Substitutes
16. Brandon M.	16. Marceline T.
17. Schoeman R.	17. Rey J.
18. Lombard S.	18. Maalo A.
19. Schoeman R.	19. Guillard M.
20. Hlekani B.	20. Allen L.
21. Pead H.	21. Baret L.
22. van Wyk H.	22. Masi I.
23. Maxwane R.	23. Wainiqolo J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (28 - 14)
7', Hlekani B. (Try),
8', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
15', Mignot C. (Try),
16', Jackson P. (Conversion Goal),
18', Kriel R. (Try),
19', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
24', Horn Q. (Try),
25', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
29', Kaabeche H. 🟨,
37', Du Plessis R. (Try),
38', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
40', Tchaptchet A. (Try),
40+1', Jackson P. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 19)
42', Gonzalez E. (Try),
46', Davids A. (Try),
47', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
54', Sarragallet M. (Try),
55', Jackson P. (Conversion Goal),
75', Parisien A. (Try),
75', Jackson P. (Conversion Goal),
79', Brandon M. (Try),
80', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Lions has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lyon has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lions may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lions has had a series of away games.

In this match, Lions is the undeniable favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lions Rugby
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Sharks - Lions	22:23 ✺
20.12.25	Stormers - Lions	34:27 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Lions	14:10 ✺
06.12.25	Lions - Benetton Treviso	18:26 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.11.25	Blue Bulls - Lions	33:43 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WLLLW
- Lyon OU
French Top 14
03.01.26	Lyon - Section Paloise	22:17 ✺
27.12.25	Castres - Lyon	36:22 ✺
20.12.25	Lyon - Toulouse	19:41 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Lyon	23:21 ✺
06.12.25	Lyon - Newcastle Red Bulls	14:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL

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