Match Info

Bunnings NPC - Round 2

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Central Energy Trust Arena (Palmerston North) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	02:05	Disney+
Australia	15:05	Stan Sport
Brazil	02:05	Disney+
Chile	01:05	Disney+
Colombia	00:05	Disney+
Mexico	23:05	Disney+
Nigeria	06:05	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	00:05	Disney+
South Africa	07:05	SuperSport Rugby
Uruguay	02:05	Disney+
Venezuela	01:05	Disney+
International	05:05	RugbyPass TV


	Manawatu		Southland

	1	X	2
	1.57	25	2.41
	1.58	22.69	2.52	Watch
	1.55	29	2.5
	1.57	25	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.43)	25.42 ↑ (20)	2.46 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manawatu
58.9%

Draw
3.6%

Southland
37.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.1%

4.5%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manawatu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Southland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Southland's recent form is better than expected.

Manawatu - Southland Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:26

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 21)
2nd Half (29 - 14)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manawatu won 3.

Southland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Manawatu is seen as the favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Manawatu won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 366:350. (average 26.1:25).

Including home matches between the teams, Manawatu won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 225:182. (average 28.1:22.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manawatu
New Zealand NPC
01.08.26	Northland - Manawatu	40:14 ✺
04.10.25	Manawatu - Hawkes Bay	10:38 ✺
27.09.25	Counties Manukau - Manawatu	48:24 ✺
21.09.25	Manawatu - Bay of Plenty	19:55 ✺
13.09.25	Auckland - Manawatu	52:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Southland
New Zealand NPC
01.08.26	Southland - Otago	14:41 ✺
03.10.25	North Harbour - Southland	15:14 ✺
26.09.25	Southland - Tasman	38:55 ✺
19.09.25	Wellington - Southland	75:19 ✺
14.09.25	Southland - Counties Manukau	10:64 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
15.08.25	Southland - Manawatu	29:22
18.09.24	Manawatu - Southland	26:21
30.09.23	Manawatu - Southland	12:37
09.10.21	Southland - Manawatu	27:38
31.10.20	Manawatu - Southland	24:12
14.09.19	Southland - Manawatu	26:31
13.10.18	Manawatu - Southland	38:26

Manawatu - Southland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide