Match Info
Super Rugby - Round 8Date: 4 April 2025, FridayLocation: Go Media Stadium (Auckland)Referee: Doleman J. (Nzl)Where to Watch on TV: | |
|---|
 Africa | SuperSport Rugby |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Australia | Stan Sport |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Canada | TSN+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Nigeria | SuperSport Rugby |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 South-africa | SuperSport Rugby |
 United-kingdom | FloSports app, Sky Sports Action |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
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|
 |
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Moana Pasifika |
|
Waratahs |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.73 |
21 |
2.2 |
|
 |
1.8 |
19 |
2.05 |
|
 |
1.71 |
24 |
2.26 |
|
 |
1.67 |
22.82 |
2.31 |
|
 |
1.73 |
23 |
2.1 |
|
 |
1.73 |
21 |
2.2 |
 Watch |
 |
1.71 |
24 |
2.26 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.73 ↓
(1.86) |
22.12 ↓
(23) |
2.2 ↑
(2) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 66.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)
- The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Moana Pasifika
53.7% | Draw
4.2% | Waratahs
42.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Moana Pasifika has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)Waratahs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moana Pasifika than the current prediction. (-6.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moana Pasifika that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Waratahs than the current prediction. (+6.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Waratahs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Moana Pasifika - Waratahs Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Waratahs (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Waratahs will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.Expected Score (Market Odds): 35:32 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
|---|
1.  Tuipulotu T.
| 1.  Bell A.
|
2. Sanerivi M.
| 2. Dobbins E.
|
3. Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F.
| 3.  Botha D.
|
4.  Slade S.
| 4. Sinclair H.
|
5. Craig A.
| 5. Grant B.
|
6.  Paea S.
| 6. Leota R.
|
7. Savea A.
| 7. Gamble C.
|
8. Tupou Ta'eiloa S.
| 8. Gleeson L.
|
9. Taumateine J.
| 9. Wilson T.
|
10. Pellegrini P.
| 10. Creighton L.
|
11. Alaimalo S.
| 11. Reilly T.
|
12. Toala D.
| 12. Foketi L.
|
13. Lalomilo L.
| 13. O'Donnell H.
|
14. Taumoefolau K.
| 14. Kellaway A.
|
15. Havili W.
| 15. Sua'ali'i J.
|
| Substitutes |
|---|
16. Malolo S.
| 16.  Heaven J.
|
17. Pole A.
| 17. Kailea I.
|
18. Apoua C.
| 18. Tupou T.
|
19.  Savage T.
| 19. Kalapu F.
|
20. Tauelangi O.
| 20. Adamson J.
|
21. Matavao M.
| 21. Grant J.
|
22. Garden-Bachop J.
| 22. Bowen J.
|
23. Inisi F.
| 23. Walton J.
|
| Coaches |
|---|
. Umaga T.
| . McKellar D.
|
Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (7 - 21)
- 5', Reilly T. (Try),
- 6', Creighton L. (Conversion Goal),
- 15', Tuipulotu T. ↓, Pole A. ↑,
- 23', Reilly T. (Try),
- 24', Creighton L. (Conversion Goal),
- 32', Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F. (Try),
- 33', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 40+3', Kellaway A. (Try),
- 40+4', Creighton L. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (38 - 7)
- 41', Sanerivi M. ↓, Malolo S. ↑,
- 41', Alaimalo S. ↓, Inisi F. ↑,
- 44', Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F. (Try),
- 44', Tupou Ta'eiloa S. (Conversion Goal),
- 52', Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F. (Try),
- 53', Pellegrini P. (Missed Conversion),
- 53', Dobbins E. ↓, Heaven J. ↑,
- 53', Botha D. ↓, Tupou T. ↑,
- 54', Lalomilo L. ↓, Garden-Bachop J. ↑,
- 54', Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F. ↓, Apoua C. ↑,
- 54', Paea S. ↓, Tauelangi O. ↑,
- 58', Wilson T. (Try),
- 59', Creighton L. (Conversion Goal),
- 59', Craig A. ↓, Savage T. ↑,
- 60', Pellegrini P. (Try),
- 61', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 61', Bell A. ↓, Kailea I. ↑,
- 63', Gamble C. ↓, Adamson J. ↑,
- 65', Havili W. (Try),
- 66', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 66', O'Donnell H. ↓, Walton J. ↑,
- 67', Taumateine J. ↓, Matavao M. ↑,
- 68', Havili W. (Try),
- 69', Pellegrini P. (Missed Conversion),
- 69', Grant B. ↓, Kalapu F. ↑,
- 69', Wilson T. ↓, Grant J. ↑,
- 69', Creighton L. ↓, Bowen J. ↑,
- 77', Tupou Ta'eiloa S. (Try),
- 78', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 9 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)). One and the other team get a very uncertain game. Moana Pasifika could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents. In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal. Our prediction for today's Moana Pasifika to win the game is with odds 1.74.
Last 3 head-to-head matches Moana Pasifika won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 80:62 (average 26.7:20.7). Including matches at home between the teams Moana Pasifika won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 47:38 (average 23.5:19).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Super Rugby | | | 25.05.24 | Moana Pasifika - Waratahs | 27:12 | | 03.06.23 | Waratahs - Moana Pasifika | 24:33 | | 07.05.22 | Moana Pasifika - Waratahs | 20:26 |
|
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