Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 4

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Thomond Park (Limerick)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	Movistar Deportes
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
Spain	M+ Deportes
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Munster		Castres

	1	X	2
	1.05	41	9
	1.03	40	11
	1.04	37.75	11.5	Watch
	1.04	34	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 ↑ (1.02)	38.19 ↓ (44)	10.38 ↓ (11.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-23)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Munster
88.7%

Draw
2.4%

Castres
8.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

90%

2.1%

7.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Munster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Munster - Castres Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 40:17

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Loughman J.	1. Sokobale A.
2. Scannell N.	2. Zarantonello L.
3. Alaalatoa M.	3. Collier W.
4. Kleyn J.	4. Maravat G.
5. Wycherley F.	5. Staniforth T.
6. Beirne T. (C)	6. Delaporte B. (C)
7. O'Donoghue J.	7. Cope B.
8. Coombes G.	8. Vanverberghe F.
9. Casey C.	9. Fernandez J.
10. Crowley J.	10. Popelin P.
11. O'Connor B.	11. Palis G.
12. Nankivell A.	12. Goodhue J.
13. Farrell T.	13. Karawalevu V.
14. Abrahams T.	14. Ambadiang C.
15. Daly S.	15. Chabouni T.
Substitutes
16. Barron L.	16. Durand T.
17. Milne M.	17. Tichit A.
18. Jager O.	18. Azar A.
19. Edogbo E.	19. Nakarawa L.
20. Gleeson B.	20. Ardron T.
21. Coughlan E.	21. Arata S.
22. Hanrahan J.	22. Herve E.
23. Kelly D.	23. Manu A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 17)
3', Fernandez J. (Penalty Goal),
11', Karawalevu V. (Try),
12', Fernandez J. (Conversion Goal),
18', Casey C. (Try),
19', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
35', Casey C. (Try),
39', Chabouni T. (Try),
40', Fernandez J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (17 - 14)
47', Abrahams T. (Try),
61', Edogbo E. (Try),
65', Farrell T. 🟨,
69', Palis G. (Try),
70', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
73', Ambadiang C. (Try),
74', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
76', Nakarawa L. 🟨,
80', (Penalty Try),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Munster won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Castres may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Munster is the obvious favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Munster won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 156:80. (average 22.3:11.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Munster won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 97:21. (average 32.3:7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Munster Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.01.26	Toulon - Munster	27:25 ✺
United Rugby Championship
02.01.26	Ulster - Munster	28:3 ✺
27.12.25	Munster - Leinster	8:13 ✺
20.12.25	Ospreys - Munster	10:26 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Munster - Gloucester	31:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWW
- Castres Olympique
European Rugby Champions Cup
09.01.26	Castres - Bath	20:43 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Stade Français - Castres	33:15 ✺
27.12.25	Castres - Lyon	36:22 ✺
20.12.25	Montpellier - Castres	33:31 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Castres - Edinburgh	33:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.24	Castres - Munster	16:14
14.01.22	Castres - Munster	13:16
18.12.21	Munster - Castres	19:13
15.12.18	Castres - Munster	13:12
09.12.18	Munster - Castres	30:5
21.01.18	Munster - Castres	48:3
15.10.17	Castres - Munster	17:17

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