Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 7

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	North Otago		South Canterbury

	1	X	2
	2.65	28	1.47
	2.61	28	1.5
	2.67	28	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↓ (2.66)	28 (28)	1.48 ↑ (1.48)

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Otago
34.8%

Draw
3.3%

South Canterbury
62%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

3.3%

62.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

3.3%

61.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Otago has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

South Canterbury has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Otago than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Canterbury than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (22 - 10)
2nd Half (10 - 19)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Otago won 1.

North Otago is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

South Cant's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

South Cant is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, North Otago won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 151:218. (average 25.2:36.3).

Including home matches between the teams, North Otago won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 65:118. (average 21.7:39.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Otago Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
19.09.25	West Coast - North Otago	31:38 ✺
12.09.25	North Otago - Poverty Bay	59:33 ✺
05.09.25	North Otago - Thames Valley	45:36 ✺
29.08.25	East Coast - North Otago	19:48 ✺
22.08.25	North Otago - Wairarapa Bush	29:56 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWWWL
- South Canterbury Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
19.09.25	Poverty Bay - South Canterbury	41:35 ✺
12.09.25	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	0:13 ✺
05.09.25	South Canterbury - Whanganui	35:24 ✺
29.08.25	Buller - South Canterbury	24:64
22.08.25	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	34:35 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
13.09.24	South Canterbury - North Otago	44:31
15.10.21	North Otago - South Canterbury	27:33
23.08.19	South Canterbury - North Otago	20:26
05.10.18	North Otago - South Canterbury	22:41
22.09.17	South Canterbury - North Otago	36:29
07.10.16	North Otago - South Canterbury	16:44

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