Match Info

EUROPE: European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 3

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
World	FloSports app


	Stade Français		Northampton Saints

	1	X	2
	2.38	21	1.62
	2.3	21	1.62
	2.37	21	1.63
	2.41	22.61	1.64
	2.6	23	1.53
	2.4	19	1.64
	2.37	21	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (3.47)	21.23 ↑ (21.04)	1.62 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stade Français
38.4%

Draw
4.4%

Northampton Saints
57.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

4.4%

69%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

4.4%

69.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stade Français has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stade Français's performance.

Northampton Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Northampton Saints might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stade Français than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stade Français that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Saints than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Northampton Saints could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Stade Français - Northampton Saints Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Northampton Saints will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:30

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alo-Emile M.	1. Haffar T.
2. Nicotera G.	2. Walker H.
3. Gomez Kodela F.	3. Davidson T.
4. Gabrillagues P. (C)	4. Prowse E.
5. Mescht JJ	5. Lockett T.
6. Halaifonua T.	6. Kemeny J. (C)
7. Briatte R.	7. Scott-Young A.
8. Tanga Mangene Y.	8. Pollock H.
9. Foursans-Bourdette L.	9. Mitchell A.
10. Henry Z.	10. Hutchinson R.
11. Etien L.	11. Seabrook T.
12. Delbouis J.	12. Savala C.
13. Ezeala S.	13. Litchfield T.
14. Dakuwaqa P.	14. Freeman T.
15. Jonas J.	15. Ramm J.
Substitutes
16. Garcia A.	16. Langdon C.
17. Koffi I.	17. West T.
18. Ndiaye H.	18. Green L.
19. Macalou S.	19. Hunter-Hill C.
20. Pesenti B.	20. Brown F.
21. Weber B.	21. Pearson T.
22. Carbonel L.	22. McParland A.
23. Marchant J.	23. Makepeace Cubitt G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 21)
12', Lockett T. (Try),
12', Hutchinson R. (Conversion Goal),
16', Pollock H. (Try),
17', Hutchinson R. (Conversion Goal),
18', Pollock H. (Try),
18', Hutchinson R. (Conversion Goal),
23', Dakuwaqa P. (Try),
30', Mescht JJ (Try),
31', Henry Z. (Conversion Goal),
40+3', Tanga Mangene Y. (Try),
40+4', Henry Z. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (26 - 14)
46', Walker H. (Try),
46', Hutchinson R. (Conversion Goal),
47', (Penalty Try),
51', Ezeala S. (Try),
57', Tanga Mangene Y. (Try),
59', Henry Z. (Conversion Goal),
68', Gabrillagues P. (Try),
69', Henry Z. (Conversion Goal),
78', Langdon C. (Try),
78', Hutchinson R. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Stade Français is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Northampton Saints is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Northampton Saints will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Stade Français won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 22:23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Français
French Top 14
04.01.25	Stade Français - Bordeaux Bègles	19:46 ✺
29.12.24	Toulouse - Stade Français	38:23 ✺
21.12.24	Stade Français - Perpignan	24:7 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
15.12.24	Stade Français - Saracens	17:28 ✺
07.12.24	Munster - Stade Français	33:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLWLL
- Northampton Saints
English Premiership Rugby
05.01.25	Northampton Saints - Bath	35:34 ✺
28.12.24	Northampton Saints - Newcastle Red Bulls	61:0 ✺
22.12.24	Saracens - Northampton Saints	39:24 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.24	Blue Bulls - Northampton Saints	21:30 ✺
07.12.24	Northampton Saints - Castres	38:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
26.05.17	Northampton Saints - Stade Français	23:22

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