Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 7

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday


	Thames Valley		South Canterbury

	1	X	2
	2.5	25	1.55
	2.49	26	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 (2.5)	25.5 ↑ (25)	1.55 (1.55)

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thames Valley
36.9%

Draw
3.6%

South Canterbury
59.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

3.6%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Thames Valley have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for South Canterbury have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thames Valley than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Canterbury than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 27)
2nd Half (24 - 15)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thames Valley won 4.

Thames Valley has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

South Cant has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with South Cant holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Thames Valley has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 197:231 (averaging 28.1:33 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Thames Valley against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 44:86 goals (averaging 22:43 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thames Valley Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
18.09.26	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Thames Valley	57:26 ✺
11.09.26	Thames Valley - Poverty Bay	57:31
04.09.26	Thames Valley - Wairarapa Bush	47:36 ✺
28.08.26	West Coast - Thames Valley	35:59
21.08.26	King Country - Thames Valley	12:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWWW
- South Canterbury Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
18.09.26	South Canterbury - North Otago	28:43 ✺
11.09.26	Mid Canterbury - South Canterbury	43:45 ✺
04.09.26	King Country - South Canterbury	55:22 ✺
28.08.26	South Canterbury - Buller	73:10
21.08.26	South Canterbury - West Coast	85:10
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
10.10.25	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	31:61
22.08.25	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	34:35
13.11.21	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	35:16
04.10.19	Thames Valley - South Canterbury	28:24
26.10.18	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	12:17
12.10.18	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	33:24
23.09.16	Thames Valley - South Canterbury	16:62

Thames Valley - South Canterbury: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide