Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 4

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday


	Thames Valley		Wairarapa Bush

	1	X	2
	1.5	26	2.58
	1.51	26	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 (1.51)	26 (26)	2.59 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thames Valley
61%

Draw
3.5%

Wairarapa Bush
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

3.5%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Thames Valley have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Wairarapa Bush has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (28 - 24)
2nd Half (19 - 12)

Preview

Thames Valley will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Thames Valley will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Thames Valley won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 128:107. (average 32:26.8).

Including home match between the teams, Thames Valley won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 29:23.

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
4	Thames Valley	8	5	0	3	384:314	29
8	Wairarapa	8	5	0	3	277:250	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thames Valley Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
28.08.26	West Coast - Thames Valley	35:59
21.08.26	King Country - Thames Valley	12:19 ✺
14.08.26	Thames Valley - Buller	89:26
17.10.25	Mid Canterbury - Thames Valley	21:18 ✺
10.10.25	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	31:61 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWLW
- Wairarapa Bush Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
28.08.26	Wairarapa Bush - Horowhenua-Kapiti	46:31 ✺
21.08.26	Mid Canterbury - Wairarapa Bush	29:19 ✺
14.08.26	Poverty Bay - Wairarapa Bush	17:20 ✺
10.10.25	Mid Canterbury - Wairarapa Bush	21:19 ✺
03.10.25	Wairarapa Bush - Poverty Bay	29:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
16.08.24	Wairarapa Bush - Thames Valley	24:37
20.09.19	Thames Valley - Wairarapa Bush	29:23
31.08.18	Wairarapa Bush - Thames Valley	32:44
16.09.16	Wairarapa Bush - Thames Valley	28:18

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