Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 3

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Mayol (Toulon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Portugal	Sport TV7
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	Toulon		Munster

	1	X	2
	1.2	34	4.5
	1.2	26	4.5
	1.22	28	4.3
	1.22	29	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↑ (1.17)	29.25 ↑ (27.67)	4.41 ↓ (5.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulon
76%

Draw
3.1%

Munster
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

78.7%

3.3%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Munster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Toulon - Munster Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Munster will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Munster (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gros J. B.	1. Loughman J.
2. Baubigny T.	2. Barron D.
3. Sinckler K.	3. Alaalatoa M.
4. Ollivon C. (C)	4. Edogbo E.
5. Ribbans D.	5. Wycherley F.
6. Ludlam L.	6. Beirne T. (C)
7. Abadie E.	7. O'Donoghue J.
8. Mercer Z.	8. Coombes G.
9. White B.	9. Casey C.
10. Albornoz T.	10. Crowley J.
11. Ferte M.	11. O'Connor B.
12. Sinzelle J.	12. Nankivell A.
13. Brex N.	13. Farrell T.
14. Drean G.	14. Nash C.
15. Domon M.	15. Daly S.
Substitutes
16. Toevalu J.	16. Scannell N.
17. Ametlla L.	17. Milne M.
18. Priso D.	18. Ryan J.
19. Alainu'uese B.	19. Ahern T.
20. Mezou C.	20. Gleeson B.
21. Coulon J.	21. Patterson P.
22. Garbisi P.	22. Hanrahan J.
23. Tuicuvu S.	23. Kelly D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 6)
16', Crowley J. (Penalty Goal),
32', Crowley J. (Penalty Goal),
37', Beirne T. 🟨,
38', Domon M. (Try),
39', Domon M. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (20 - 19)
43', White B. (Try),
44', Domon M. (Conversion Goal),
46', Nash C. (Try),
47', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
49', Drean G. (Try),
50', Domon M. (Conversion Goal),
54', Nankivell A. 🟨,
56', Abadie E. 🟨,
64', Domon M. (Penalty Goal),
67', O'Donoghue J. (Try),
68', Ollivon C. 🟨,
71', Farrell T. (Try),
72', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
75', Domon M. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Munster may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Toulon is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Toulon won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 61:65. (average 20.3:21.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulon won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 42:45. (average 21:22.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Toulonnais
French Top 14
04.01.26	La Rochelle - Toulon	66:0 ✺
28.12.25	Toulon - Perpignan	31:16 ✺
21.12.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulon	46:7 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Toulon - Bath	45:34 ✺
07.12.25	Edinburgh - Toulon	33:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLWL
- Munster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
02.01.26	Ulster - Munster	28:3 ✺
27.12.25	Munster - Leinster	8:13 ✺
20.12.25	Ospreys - Munster	10:26 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Munster - Gloucester	31:3 ✺
06.12.25	Bath - Munster	40:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
13.01.24	Toulon - Munster	18:29
31.03.18	Munster - Toulon	20:19
Heineken Cup
27.04.14	Toulon - Munster	24:16

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