Match Info

Top 14 - Round 4

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Ernest-Wallon (Toulouse)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
Peru	Movistar Deportes
Spain	M+ Deportes
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1
World	TOP 14 Rugby TV


	Toulouse		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.01	51	17
	1.05	40	9
	1.04	39.21	11.92	Watch
	1.05	38	9
	1.04	41	12
	1.05	45	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 ↑ (1.01)	42.37 ↓ (47)	11.32 ↓ (16.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 67.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
89.6%

Draw
2.2%

Montpellier
8.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

92.3%

5.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Toulouse - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 35:35

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neti R.	1. Welsch V.
2. Marchand J.	2. Riccitelli R.
3. Aldegheri D.	3. Hounkpatin W.
4. Brennan J.	4. Van Heerden R.
5. Flament T.	5. Chalureau B.
6. Roumat A.	6. Camara Y. (C)
7. Elias E.	7. Masibaka A.
8. Ntamack T.	8. Piccardo J.
9. Dupont A. (C)	9. Price A.
10. Ntamack R.	10. Hastings A.
11. Capuozzo A.	11. Rates M.
12. Chocobares S.	12. Anyanwu L.
13. Gourgues K.	13. Vincent A.
14. Thomas T.	14. Delibes D.
15. Ramos T.	15. Echegaray J.
Substitutes
16. Lacombre T.	16. Akrab L.
17. Baille C.	17. Tabarot L.
18. Merkler J.	18. Beard A.
19. Bonnard J.	19. Audebert R.
20. Kouassi M-E	20. Bernadet A.
21. Remue M.	21. Hogg S.
22. Lebel M.	22. Moustin M.
23. Rapetti T.	23. Tolofua C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 8)
3', Thomas T. 🟨,
15', Roumat A. 🟨,
16', Hastings A. (Penalty Goal),
23', Ntamack T. (Try),
23', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
31', Thomas T. (Try),
37', Echegaray J. (Try),
40', Ntamack R. (Try),
40', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (21 - 10)
46', Hounkpatin W. 🟨,
50', Dupont A. (Try),
50', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
51', Dupont A. (Try),
52', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
62', Thomas T. (Try),
63', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
65', Akrab L. (Try),
71', Vincent A. (Try),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 4.

Toulouse may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The betting markets point to Toulouse as the clear and undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Toulouse has recorded 16 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 487:406 (averaging 24.4:20.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Toulouse against this opponent, the record stands at 10 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 309:171 goals (averaging 28.1:15.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
1	Stade Toulousain	5	4	0	1	152:90	19
5	Montpellier	5	3	0	2	141:92	14

Last Results with these Odds

Toulouse - the odds 1.01 are the expected chance of winning is 92.28%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Toulousain
French Top 14
19.09.26	Vannes - Toulouse	23:29 ✺
13.09.26	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	48:12 ✺
06.09.26	La Rochelle - Toulouse	30:27 ✺
27.06.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	28:20 ✺
19.06.26	Toulouse - Racing Métro	71:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLWW
- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
19.09.26	Montpellier - Perpignan	50:13 ✺
12.09.26	Vannes - Montpellier	12:26 ✺
05.09.26	Montpellier - Section Paloise	19:27 ✺
27.06.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	28:20 ✺
20.06.26	Montpellier - Stade Français	25:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
27.06.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	28:20
28.03.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	45:29
20.09.25	Montpellier - Toulouse	44:14
25.01.25	Toulouse - Montpellier	27:17
21.09.24	Montpellier - Toulouse	11:20
18.05.24	Montpellier - Toulouse	22:29
27.08.23	Toulouse - Montpellier	38:13

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