Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 18

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Ravenhill Stadium (Belfast)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Ulster		Glasgow Warriors

	1	X	2
	3.4	26	1.33
	3.35	25	1.33
	3.41	22.41	1.36	Watch
	3.25	29	1.3
	3.55	21	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (3.27)	24.68 ↑ (20.67)	1.33 ↓ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulster
27.1%

Draw
3.7%

Glasgow Warriors
69.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

4.4%

67.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

4.2%

71.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Glasgow Warriors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulster than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Glasgow Warriors than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Ulster - Glasgow Warriors Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:29

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 21)
2nd Half (10 - 5)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Ulster may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ulster has had a series of home games.

In this match, Glasgow Warriors is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 408:415. (average 20.4:20.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulster won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 245:133. (average 27.2:14.8).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Glasgow Warriors: 13.07% Ulster: 3.51%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
5	Glasgow Warriors	2	1	1	0	59:53	8
11	Ulster	2	0	1	1	62:67	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
08.05.26	Ulster - Stormers	38:38 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
02.05.26	Ulster - Exeter Chiefs	29:12 ✺
United Rugby Championship
25.04.26	Munster - Ulster	41:14 ✺
17.04.26	Ulster - Leinster	21:29 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.04.26	Ulster - La Rochelle	41:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWLLW
- Glasgow Warriors
United Rugby Championship
08.05.26	Glasgow Warriors - Cardiff Rugby	40:17 ✺
25.04.26	Stormers - Glasgow Warriors	48:12 ✺
18.04.26	Lions - Glasgow Warriors	54:12 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.04.26	Glasgow Warriors - Toulon	19:22 ✺
04.04.26	Glasgow Warriors - Blue Bulls	25:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
21.09.24	Ulster - Glasgow Warriors	20:19
25.11.23	Glasgow Warriors - Ulster	33:20
17.02.23	Glasgow Warriors - Ulster	17:11
24.09.21	Ulster - Glasgow Warriors	35:29
19.02.21	Glasgow Warriors - Ulster	13:19
09.11.20	Ulster - Glasgow Warriors	40:15
17.05.19	Glasgow Warriors - Ulster	50:20

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