Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 11

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Ravenhill Stadium (Belfast)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Ulster		Cardiff Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.22	29	4.33
	1.23	27	4.2
	1.25	25.25	4.31	Watch
	1.22	26	4.33
	1.18	23	5.03
	1.22	31	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↑ (1.14)	26.88 ↓ (29.2)	4.42 ↓ (6.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulster
75.7%

Draw
3.4%

Cardiff Rugby
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

81.5%

3.2%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ulster's form might have worsened.

Cardiff Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cardiff Rugby's recent form is better than expected.

Ulster - Cardiff Rugby Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:20

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 0)
2nd Half (7 - 14)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 3.

Ulster is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cardiff has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Ulster is the team to beat.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 13 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 526:360. (average 27.7:18.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulster won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 266:147. (average 29.6:16.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Cardiff Rugby	3	2	0	1	66:71	9
10	Ulster	3	0	2	1	88:93	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
24.01.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Ulster	27:22 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Ulster - Stade Français	26:19 ✺
11.01.26	Cheetahs - Ulster	0:28 ✺
United Rugby Championship
02.01.26	Ulster - Munster	28:3 ✺
27.12.25	Connacht - Ulster	24:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWWWW
- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
24.01.26	Cardiff Rugby - Benetton Treviso	17:8 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
18.01.26	Exeter Chiefs - Cardiff Rugby	31:0 ✺
10.01.26	Cardiff Rugby - Racing Métro	32:13 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	33:22 ✺
26.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	22:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Ulster	29:26
United Rugby Championship
26.10.24	Cardiff Rugby - Ulster	21:19
19.04.24	Ulster - Cardiff Rugby	19:17
04.03.23	Cardiff Rugby - Ulster	20:42
04.03.22	Ulster - Cardiff Rugby	48:12
02.11.20	Cardiff Rugby - Ulster	7:11
25.10.19	Ulster - Cardiff Rugby	23:14

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