Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 16

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Ravenhill Stadium (Belfast)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Viaplay
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport, BBC Two, FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, URC
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Ulster		Sharks

	1	X	2
	2.38	21	1.62
	2.37	21	1.62
	2.55	25	1.57
	2.5	22.86	1.58
	2.3	23	1.62
	2.44	23	1.59	Watch
	2.55	25	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.22)	22.98 ↑ (22.8)	1.6 ↓ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulster
37.9%

Draw
4%

Sharks
58%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

4.1%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Sharks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulster than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sharks than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Ulster - Sharks Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:29

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Warwick A.	1. Nche O.
2. Herring R.	2. Mbonambi B.
3. O'Toole T.	3. Koch V.
4. O'Connor A.	4. Tshituka V.
5. Izuchukwu C.	5. Jenkins J.
6. Rea M.	6. Venter J.
7. Timoney N.	7. Manu Tshituka
8. McNabney J.	8. Kolisi S.
9. Doak N.	9. Hendrikse J.
10. Murphy J.	10. Hendrikse J.
11. Ward Z.	11. Mapimpi M.
12. McCloskey S.	12. Esterhuizen A.
13. Postlethwaite J.	13. Am L.
14. Kok W.	14. Hooker E.
15. Stockdale J.	15. Fassi A.
Substitutes
16. Stewart T.	16. Mbatha F.
17. Reid C.	17. Mchunu N.
18. Wilson S.	18. Jacobs H.
19. Dalton M.	19. Slabbert D.
20. Treadwell K.	20. Buthelezi P.
21. Shanahan D.	21. Davids B.
22. Morgan A.	22. Masuku S.
23. McCann D.	23. Julius J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 5)
7', Murphy J. (Try),
10', Postlethwaite J. (Try),
10', Murphy J. (Conversion Goal),
30', Doak N. (Try),
31', Murphy J. (Conversion Goal),
34', Mapimpi M. (Try),
2nd Half (0 - 17)
61', Manu Tshituka (Try),
62', Hendrikse J. (Conversion Goal),
70', Julius J. (Try),
71', Hendrikse J. (Conversion Goal),
78', Hendrikse J. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Sharks could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Sharks will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Ulster won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 67:67 (average 22.3:22.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Ulster won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 24:21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
19.04.25	Leinster - Ulster	41:17 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
06.04.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Ulster	43:31 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.25	Ulster - Stormers	38:34 ✺
22.03.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ulster	30:34 ✺
01.03.25	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	30:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLWWW
- Sharks Rugby
United Rugby Championship
18.04.25	Edinburgh - Sharks	17:18 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
06.04.25	Lyon - Sharks	34:21 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Sharks - Leinster	7:10 ✺
22.03.25	Sharks - Zebre	35:34 ✺
08.03.25	Sharks - Lions	25:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
23.03.24	Sharks - Ulster	22:12
25.02.23	Sharks - Ulster	24:31
20.05.22	Ulster - Sharks	24:21

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