Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 7

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas (Chillán)

Referee: Gilabert F. (Chi)


	Ñublense		Deportes La Serena

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.3	3.8	Watch
	1.92	3.35	3.95
	1.98	3.56	4.05
	1.89	3.62	3.86	Watch
	1.85	3.2	3.75
	1.91	3.42	3.88	Watch
	1.84	3.45	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.84)	3.41 ↓ (3.45)	3.88 ↓ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ñublense
49%

Draw
27.2%

Deportes La Serena
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

26.6%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

26.2%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ñublense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Deportes La Serena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ñublense than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes La Serena than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Ñublense - Deportes La Serena Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ñublense (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Ñublense will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perez N. (G) 5. Campos Mosqueira F. 4. Bosso Torres O. 15. Valencia S. 8. Graciani G. 21. Reyes L. (C) 28. Rivera M. 14. Campusano J. 7. Ovelar F. 20. Jeraldino I. 29. Avalos G.	1. Lanzillotta F. (G) 21. Gutierrez B. 33. Delgado R. 5. Alarcon L. 26. Dinamarca F. 8. Escalante G. 4. Mac Allister F. 14. Chamorro F. 16. Gutierrez J. 11. Rubio D. 10. Vargas J. (C)
Substitutes
6. Calderon P. 18. Cespedes D. 11. Molina Canto L. 25. Munoz H. (G) 10. Plaza M. 9. Rami F. 3. Salomon C. 16. Sanhueza D. 22. Valdes A.	23. Marin M. 28. Orellana J. 19. Sandoval B. 22. Sanhueza Mora E. A. (G) 27. Sepulveda C. 34. Stefanelli N. 20. Velasquez M. 2. Zanini A.
Coaches
Ribera J.	Gutierrez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Avalos G. ⚽, Graciani G. (A),
38', Gutierrez J. 🟨,
45+3', Escalante G. 🟨,
45+6', Graciani G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
54', 1 - 1, Alarcon L. ⚽, Rubio D. (A),
57', 1 - 2, Vargas J. ⚽, Rubio D. (A),
58', Ovelar F. ↓, Plaza M. ↑,
58', Campos Mosqueira F. ↓, Sanhueza D. ↑,
62', Gutierrez B. 🟨,
65', Avalos G. ↓, Valdes A. ↑,
70', Gutierrez J. ↓, Stefanelli N. ↑,
73', Campusano J. 🟨,
77', Jeraldino I. ↓, Rami F. ↑,
77', Rivera M. ↓, Cespedes D. ↑,
79', Rubio D. 🟨,
79', Valencia S. 🟨,
82', Rubio D. ↓, Sandoval B. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Rami F. ⚽,
90+3', Ribera J. 🟨,
90+4', Vargas J. ↓, Marin M. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Qualification: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ñublense won 2.

Ñublense is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Deportes La Serena has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ñublense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ñublense is a strong favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Ñublense won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ñublense won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.4:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Nublense	23	8	8	7	28:31	-3	32
10	La Serena	23	7	9	7	34:38	-4	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Primera Division
06.03.26	Deportes Concepción - Ñublense	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Ñublense - Universidad Católica	1:2 ✺
20.02.26	Unión La Calera - Ñublense	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Ñublense - Audax Italiano	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Ñublense - Deportes Limache	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WLWWT
- Deportes La Serena
Chilean Primera Division
06.03.26	Deportes La Serena - Unión La Calera	3:0 ✺
27.02.26	Cobresal - Deportes La Serena	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Deportes La Serena - Universidad de Concepción	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Deportes La Serena - Coquimbo Unido	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	OHiggins - Deportes La Serena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
18.10.25	Deportes La Serena - Ñublense	1:1
25.04.25	Ñublense - Deportes La Serena	2:0
30.07.22	Deportes La Serena - Ñublense	3:0
04.03.22	Ñublense - Deportes La Serena	3:1
05.10.21	Ñublense - Deportes La Serena	0:1
08.05.21	Deportes La Serena - Ñublense	1:0
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
18.08.19	Ñublense - Deportes La Serena	1:2

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