Match Info

TOPLYGA - Round 22

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Where to Watch on TV:


Lithuania	LNK


	Žalgiris		Sūduva Marijampolė

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.25	2.80
	2.15	3.15	2.95
	2.25	3.35	3.06
	2.24	3.38	3.05	Watch
	2.18	3.2	3
	2.2	3.28	2.86	Watch
	2.18	3.25	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.15)	3.27 ↓ (3.3)	2.96 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Žalgiris
41.5%

Draw
27.8%

Sūduva Marijampolė
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

27.2%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

26.3%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Žalgiris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Sūduva Marijampolė has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žalgiris than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sūduva Marijampolė than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Sarkauskas V. (G) 18. Sesplaukis D. 4. Koy Lupano D. 15. Bosancic P. 21. Franke D. 22. Verbickas O. (C) 77. Kendysh Y. 27. Vareika M. 10. Golubickas P. 7. Mihajlovic N. 19. Bilenkyi S.	12. Zenkevicius G. (G) 11. Chajia M. 5. Baltrunas Z. 15. Zivanovic A. (C) 23. Grigalava R. 14. Steponavicius F. 6. Sabo A. 8. Lawson S. 7. Seck I. 16. Tsykalo Y. 94. Sanokho S. M.
Substitutes
8. Antal L. 29. Bicka K. 6. Capan M. 9. Jarusevicius G. 44. Matyzonok P. 1. Olses C. (G) 11. Petkovic N. 14. Setkus M. 70. Teixeira B. 5. Turda G. 16. Usavicius J. 26. Zahary Y.	26. Antanavicius D. 10. Haydary O. 9. Lucky T. 13. Mikulenas M. 18. Milasius T. 20. Omori Y. 66. Pacesa R. (G) 19. Tangiri F.
Coaches
Skerla A.	Vencevicius D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Vareika M. ⚽, Bilenkyi S. (A),
14', 2 - 0, Zivanovic A. (Own goal),
45', Sanokho S. M. 🟨,
45+3', Grigalava R. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', Seck I. ↓, Lucky T. ↑,
60', Steponavicius F. ↓, Milasius T. ↑,
60', Zivanovic A. ↓, Tangiri F. ↑,
62', Verbickas O. ↓, Capan M. ↑,
62', Vareika M. ↓, Teixeira B. ↑,
71', 3 - 0, Teixeira B. ⚽, Bilenkyi S. (A),
73', Mihajlovic N. ↓, Jarusevicius G. ↑,
73', Bilenkyi S. ↓, Petkovic N. ↑,
73', Chajia M. ↓, Haydary O. ↑,
73', Sanokho S. M. ↓, Omori Y. ↑,
76', Jarusevicius G. 🟨,
78', Golubickas P. ↓, Antal L. ↑,
81', 4 - 0, Teixeira B. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Sūduva could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Sūduva has had a run of games away from home.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Žalgiris has recorded 11 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 39:13 (averaging 2:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Žalgiris against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 21:4 goals (averaging 2.1:0.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Suduva	29	13	11	5	39:29	10	50
3	Zalgiris	29	14	5	10	45:34	11	47

Last Results with these Odds

Sūduva Marijampolė - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.02%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Žalgiris Vilnius
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Žalgiris - Panevėžys	0:2 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
19.09.26	Transinvest - Žalgiris	3:0 ✺
16.09.26	Žalgiris - Kauno Žalgiris	3:2 ✺
13.09.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Žalgiris	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Žalgiris - FA Šiauliai	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWTW
- Sūduva Marijampolė
Club Friendly
29.09.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Sūduva Marijampolė	5:0 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
20.09.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Žalgiris	0:0 ✺
09.09.26	Kauno Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	5:1 ✺
06.09.26	Transinvest - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
13.09.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Žalgiris	0:0
10.05.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Žalgiris	1:1
10.03.26	Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:0
29.09.25	Sūduva Marijampolė - Žalgiris	1:3
07.08.25	Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:0
19.06.25	Sūduva Marijampolė - Žalgiris	2:2
16.04.25	Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	3:0

Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide