Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 10

Date: 3 November 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Leiria		Chaves

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.3	2.25	Watch
	2.98	3.2	2.3
	2.81	2.80	2.81	Watch
	3.02	3.18	2.34	Watch
	2.5	3.14	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.41)	3.12 ↓ (3.25)	2.49 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Leiria
32.8%

Draw
29.8%

Chaves
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

28.4%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

28%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leiria's form might have worsened.

Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leiria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	66.7%	22.2%

Leiria - Chaves Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Leiria will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Chaves will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Chaves (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Chaves (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Joao Bravim (G) 68. Maga 16. Ze Pedro 5. Rofino V. G. 3. Baro M. 10. van der Gaag J. 41. Daniel Borges 21. Pires M. 11. Jair da Silva 19. Fernandez P. 9. Munoz J. (C)	1. Vozinha (C) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 33. Simoes T. 22. Muscat Z. 19. Tiago Almeida 20. Ktatau 8. Pinho P. 30. Kusso D. 21. Wellington Carvalho 17. Roberto 7. Paulo Victor
Substitutes
1. Carrasco S. (G) 20. Gomes B. 18. Lottin A. 17. Lucho Vega 86. Michel D. 6. Rodriguez G. 78. Santos J. 15. Silva J. 52. Sylla H.	34. Alves R. 44. Bikoro F. 15. Carraca 23. Gudzulic M. (G) 97. Joao Teixeira 5. Kiko 9. Milovanovic U. 18. Pereira H. 77. Reinaldo
Coaches
Pereira F.	Martins F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Pinho P. ⚽, Simoes T. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Pires M. ↓, Lottin A. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Munoz J. ⚽,
59', Paulo Victor 🟨,
59', Rofino V. G. 🟨,
60', Muscat Z. 🟨,
65', Paulo Victor 🟨,
66', 🟨,
70', Wellington Carvalho ↓, Bikoro F. ↑,
70', Kusso D. ↓, Kiko ↑,
77', Pinho P. ↓, Carraca ↑,
77', Roberto ↓, Milovanovic U. ↑,
87', Ktatau ↓, Joao Teixeira ↑,
88', Fernandez P. ↓, Lucho Vega ↑,
88', Daniel Borges ↓, Santos J. ↑,
88', Jair da Silva ↓, Michel D. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, van der Gaag J. ⚽,
90+3', Munoz J. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 and 7).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Chaves may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Leiria won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Leiria won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
30.10.25	Marítimo - Leiria	1:3 ✺
25.10.25	Leiria - Leixões	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Leiria - Alverca	3:2 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
11.10.25	Leiria - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Portimonense - Leiria	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLWTT
- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
25.10.25	Académico de Viseu - Chaves	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.10.25	Chaves - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
04.10.25	Chaves - Vizela	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	Farense - Chaves	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Paredes - Chaves	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
10.05.25	Chaves - Leiria	0:2
12.01.25	Leiria - Chaves	1:1
Taça de Portugal
26.09.15	Leiria - Chaves	0:1 penalties

Upcoming Matches