Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 30

Date: 30 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal)

Referee: de Oliveira Lacerda D. (Bra)


	ABC		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	2.75	3.3
	2.35	2.85	3.4	Watch
	2.47	2.79	3.7
	2.3	2.9	3.3
	2.35	2.96	3.35
	2.33	2.8	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.77)	2.84 ↓ (2.88)	3.41 ↑ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ABC
39.7%

Draw
32.9%

Ponte Preta
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

32.4%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

33%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ABC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in ABC's performance.

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponte Preta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ABC than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with ABC that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponte Preta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

ABC - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. ABC will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Ponte Preta will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Michael (G) 51. Alemao 44. Fabricio 14. Habraao 2. Gedeilson 20. Ramon 30. Nathan Melo 75. Maycon Douglas 15. Andrey 11. Wallyson 7. Matheus Anjos	12. Caique Franca (G) 14. Luiz Felipe 4. Mateus Silva 3. de Morae E. R. G. 15. Artur 22. Paul Villero 6. Filipinho 5. Leo Naldi 18. Souza 9. Pereira Silva E. C. 10. Elvis (C)
Substitutes
22. Alex Silva 26. Anderson Cordeiro 5. Daniel 97. Evandro 27. Jhonnathan 90. Matheus Refundini (G) 9. Paulo Sergio 33. Rodriguez A. 10. Thonny Anderson	8. Felipe Amaral 17. Gabriel Santiago 77. Igor Torres 30. Luan Ribeiro (G) 20. Lucas Nathan 7. Mailton 16. Paulo Baya 40. Ramon 21. Tales 13. Thomas 23. Weverton
Coaches
Fuchs A.	Pintado

Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 15).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Ponte Preta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in ABC: Walfrido (Injury) Wellington (Injury)

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Everton (Injury) Jean Carlos (Injury) Jeh (Red Card) Pablo Dyego (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches ABC won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Including matches at home between the teams ABC won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie B
25.09.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - ABC	2:1 ✺
15.09.23	ABC - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
07.09.23	Tombense - ABC	3:0 ✺
02.09.23	ABC - Sampaio Corrêa	1:1 ✺
28.08.23	Botafogo SP - ABC	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLLTT
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
22.09.23	Ponte Preta - Mirassol	0:3 ✺
15.09.23	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	1:1 ✺
09.09.23	Ponte Preta - Sampaio Corrêa	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Paulista
03.09.23	Ponte Preta - CA Juventus	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
02.09.23	Guarani - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
06.06.23	Ponte Preta - ABC	0:0
16.09.14	ABC - Ponte Preta	0:2
10.05.14	Ponte Preta - ABC	2:1

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