Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 20

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday


	AC Libertas		Murata

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.25	3.3
	1.95	3.21	3.56
	1.97	3.43	3.49
	2	3	3.4
	1.96	3.24	3.54
	1.95	3.2	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.24)	3.22 ↓ (3.49)	3.47 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AC Libertas
45.9%

Draw
28%

Murata
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

26.1%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

24.5%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AC Libertas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AC Libertas's performance.

Murata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Murata might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AC Libertas than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Murata than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Murata could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

AC Libertas - Murata Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25, 1st Half - AC Libertas (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. AC Libertas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Cozzino E. ⚽, Quarta A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
59', 1 - 1, Tahiri J. ⚽,
77', 2 - 1, Giammaria R. ⚽, Michelotti R. (A),
89', 3 - 1, Michelotti R. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AC Libertas won 1.

Recent performances by AC Libertas have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Murata is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, AC Libertas has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, AC Libertas won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:10. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, AC Libertas won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Libertas	4	1	2	1	4:5	-1	5
12	Murata	4	1	0	3	4:10	-6	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Libertas
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
01.02.26	San Giovanni - AC Libertas	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Cailungo - AC Libertas	1:2 ✺
20.01.26	AC Libertas - Domagnano	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	San Marino Academy U22 - AC Libertas	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Tre Penne - AC Libertas	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 TWWLL
- SS Murata
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
31.01.26	Folgore - Murata	3:2 ✺
24.01.26	Murata - La Fiorita	0:2 ✺
20.01.26	Murata - Cailungo	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Faetano - Murata	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Fiorentino - Murata	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
05.10.25	Murata - AC Libertas	1:1
08.02.25	Murata - AC Libertas	1:0
06.10.24	AC Libertas - Murata	1:0
23.01.24	Murata - AC Libertas	1:0
23.09.23	AC Libertas - Murata	1:4
15.04.23	AC Libertas - Murata	0:0
08.01.23	Murata - AC Libertas	2:3

AC Libertas - Murata: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide