Match Info

Liga 2 - Promotion Group - Round 7

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Victor Montoya Segura (Jaen)


	ADA Jaén		Comerciantes Belén

	1	X	2
	2.02	2.88	3.7
	2.09	2.66	4
	1.95	3.18	3.68
	1.87	3.35	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.72)	3.02 ↓ (3.6)	3.78 ↓ (4.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ADA Jaén
45.8%

Draw
30.1%

Comerciantes Belén
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

25.7%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

25.3%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADA Jaén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that ADA Jaén's form might have worsened.

Comerciantes Belén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ADA Jaén than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for ADA Jaén, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comerciantes Belén than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ADA Jaén - Comerciantes Belén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rojas S. (G) 22. Acevedo G. 17. Crespo H. 11. Cubas A. 7. Duque L. 19. Labrin V. 37. Maciel E. 9. Rodriguez F. 44. Rossi E. 18. Salinas T. 3. Villalta M.	1. Silva L. (G) 3. Catashunga J. 19. Dominguez J. 27. Ferreira P. 32. Flores A. 7. Hurtado C. 10. Lemos M. 31. Navarro J. 21. Pereira G. 33. Valdeblanquez J. 16. Valverde M.
Substitutes
10. Aponza S. 13. Cano L. 32. Cassiano F. . Edu R. 14. Guzman C. 15. Lopez D. 4. Prado B. 77. Rodriguez A. 20. Valencia J.	22. Aburto B. 6. Arevalo F. 34. Bosmediano J. 24. Cortes M. 8. Flores L. 13. Garcia A. (G) 26. Guevara R. 5. Pinedo D. 30. Tuesta J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 🟨,
19', 🟨,
37', 🟨,
37', 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', 🟨,
50', 0 - 2, ⚽,
53', 🟨,
59', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Both teams are currently in poor form.

ADA may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, ADA is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, ADA won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADA Jaén
Peruvian Liga 2
24.08.25	San Marcos - ADA Jaén	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Unión Comercio - ADA Jaén	2:0 ✺
03.08.25	ADA Jaén - Santos	1:2 ✺
26.07.25	Comerciantes Belén - ADA Jaén	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	ADA Jaén - San Marcos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLTT
- AD Comerciantes Belén
Peruvian Liga 2
24.08.25	Comerciantes Belén - Unión Comercio	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Comerciantes Belén - Santos	3:0 ✺
01.08.25	San Marcos - Comerciantes Belén	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Comerciantes Belén - ADA Jaén	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
26.07.25	Comerciantes Belén - ADA Jaén	1:1

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