Match Info

PERU: Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 20 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Unión Tarma (Tarma)

Referee: Espinoza M. (Per)


	ADT Tarma		Universidad César Vallejo

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.7	3.5	4.1
	1.75	3.65	4.6	Watch
	1.75	3.55	4.9
	1.73	3.55	4.9
	1.7	3.6	4.4
	1.67	3.7	4.7	Watch
	1.73	3.6	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.99)	3.58 ↑ (3.23)	4.59 ↑ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ADT Tarma
54%

Draw
25.9%

Universidad César Vallejo
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

28.7%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

27.6%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADT Tarma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in ADT Tarma's performance.

Universidad César Vallejo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with ADT Tarma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad César Vallejo than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

ADT Tarma - Universidad César Vallejo Predictions

Users Predictions: ADT Tarma will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Diaz P. (G) 23. Narvaez J. 3. Inga C. 26. Bersano F. 54. Gamero Y. 6. Perez L. 10. Cedron V. 11. Quinonez A. 9. Rengifo H. 12. Rojas J. 20. Beto S.	1. Grados C. (G) 5. Deneumostier A. 6. Perea G. 32. Madrid J. 14. Cabello C. 23. Da Silva P. 13. Barreto G. 33. Benitez E. 2. Quinones Goicochea J. J. 10. Velez J. 17. Mena Y.
Substitutes
15. Alvino J. 18. Dominguez J. 14. Gonzales J. 1. Hermoza E. (G) 13. Montenegro D. 8. Palomino J. 89. Posito J. 24. Rambal A. 17. Vargas C.	7. Barreto O. 21. Carvallo J. (G) 22. Flores F. 3. Ganoza M. 20. Noronha O. 24. Olaya S. 38. Perez D. 27. Ramirez A. 28. Santibanez S.
Coaches
Desio C.	Salas G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Deneumostier A. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Beto S. ⚽, Cedron V. (A),
44', Rengifo H. ↓, Posito J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Beto S. 🟨,
68', Velez J. 🟨,
69', Beto S. ↓, Gonzales J. ↑,
69', Quinonez A. ↓, Rambal A. ↑,
73', Cabello C. ↓, Ramirez A. ↑,
73', Benitez E. ↓, Flores F. ↑,
73', Mena Y. ↓, Noronha O. ↑,
85', Da Silva P. ↓, Olaya S. ↑,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 8 and 15).

Two teams are playing changeable.

ADT could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match ADT is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches ADT won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-4.

Including matches at home between the teams ADT won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
14.04.24	Cusco - ADT Tarma	3:2 ✺
07.04.24	ADT Tarma - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:2 ✺
31.03.24	Sport Huancayo - ADT Tarma	0:2 ✺
16.03.24	ADT Tarma - Cajamarca	2:1 ✺
09.03.24	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LTWWL
- Universidad César Vallejo
Peruvian Liga 1
14.04.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Comerciantes Unidos	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Universidad César Vallejo	4:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
06.04.24	Unión Comercio - Universidad César Vallejo	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Defensa y Justicia	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
30.03.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
21.08.23	Universidad César Vallejo - ADT Tarma	1:1
31.03.23	ADT Tarma - Universidad César Vallejo	2:0
16.07.22	Universidad César Vallejo - ADT Tarma	3:2
12.02.22	ADT Tarma - Universidad César Vallejo	0:0

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