Match Info

National League North - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: New Bucks Head (Telford)


	AFC Telford United		Chester

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	2.75
	2.3	3.35	2.78
	2.27	3.69	2.79	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.8
	2.31	3.3	2.75
	2.28	3.33	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.36)	3.35 ↓ (3.54)	2.78 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Telford United
40%

Draw
27.2%

Chester
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

26.2%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

26.2%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Telford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Chester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Telford United than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chester than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

AFC Telford United - Chester Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Meddows J. ⚽,
33', 2 - 0, Stenson M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 2 - 1, Leak T. ⚽,
60', 3 - 1, Stenson M. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Telford won 0.

Telford is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chester has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Telford may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Telford won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:26. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Telford won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1.1:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

AFC Telford United - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 39.36%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Telford United
English National League North
20.12.25	Buxton - AFC Telford United	0:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	AFC Telford United - Altrincham	4:3 ✺
English National League North
09.12.25	Leamington - AFC Telford United	1:3 ✺
06.12.25	AFC Telford United - Southport	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Radcliffe - AFC Telford United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WWWTT
- Chester City
English National League North
20.12.25	Chester - South Shields	1:3 ✺
06.12.25	King`s Lynn Town - Chester	0:2 ✺
02.12.25	Radcliffe - Chester	1:3 ✺
25.11.25	Chester - Hereford	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Chester - Leamington	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
01.01.23	Chester - AFC Telford United	1:1
26.12.22	AFC Telford United - Chester	0:0
02.01.22	Chester - AFC Telford United	1:1
26.12.21	AFC Telford United - Chester	1:3
02.01.21	Chester - AFC Telford United	3:0
26.12.20	AFC Telford United - Chester	1:2
21.12.19	Chester - AFC Telford United	0:0

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