Match Info

National League North - Round 21

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: New Bucks Head (Telford)


	AFC Telford United		Southport

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.6	3.7
	1.85	3.55	3.7
	1.81	3.83	3.97
	1.82	3.85	3.85	Watch
	1.8	3.5	3.75
	1.83	3.77	3.87
	1.8	3.66	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.03)	3.68 ↑ (3.62)	3.81 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Telford United
50.8%

Draw
25%

Southport
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

25.6%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

26.1%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Telford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AFC Telford United's performance.

Southport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Telford United than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southport than the current prediction. (+4%)

AFC Telford United - Southport Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Southport (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Walker R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', 1 - 1, McKenzie M. ⚽,
57', 1 - 2, Sze C. ⚽,
60', 2 - 2, Stenson M. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 16 and 19).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Telford won 0.

Recent performances by Telford have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Southport is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Southport may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Telford is considered a favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Telford won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Telford won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

AFC Telford United - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 45.68%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Telford United
English National League North
29.11.25	Radcliffe - AFC Telford United	2:2 ✺
25.11.25	AFC Telford United - Oxford City	4:0 ✺
22.11.25	AFC Telford United - South Shields	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Chesham United - AFC Telford United	1:2 ✺
English National League North
11.11.25	Marine - AFC Telford United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TWTWL
- Southport
English National League North
25.11.25	Southport - Radcliffe	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	Southport - Kidderminster Harriers	2:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Buxton - Southport	2:3 ✺
English National League North
11.11.25	Southport - Chester	2:2 ✺
08.11.25	Hereford - Southport	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.7 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
28.01.23	AFC Telford United - Southport	1:1
27.08.22	Southport - AFC Telford United	0:0
02.05.22	Southport - AFC Telford United	1:1
08.02.22	AFC Telford United - Southport	0:3
07.11.20	AFC Telford United - Southport	1:1
24.08.19	Southport - AFC Telford United	0:1
26.01.19	Southport - AFC Telford United	0:4

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