Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 29

Date: 20 February 2024, Tuesday

Location: The Cherry Red Records Stadium (London)

Referee: Tallis S. (Eng)


	AFC Wimbledon		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	1.65	4	5
	1.65	4	4.6
	1.63	4.2	4.75
	1.64	4	4.5
	1.69	4.27	4.75
	1.6	4.2	4.6
	1.64	4.1	4.73	Watch
	1.58	4	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.48)	4.1 ↓ (4.24)	4.72 ↓ (5.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Wimbledon
57.3%

Draw
22.9%

Crawley Town
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

21.7%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

22.1%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AFC Wimbledon's form might have worsened.

Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AFC Wimbledon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	6.7%	46.7%

AFC Wimbledon - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Wimbledon will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Crawley will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wimbledon: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Bass A. (G) 33. Ogundere I. 5. Balmer K. 3. Brown L. 26. Currie J. 9. Davison J. 16. Ball J. 14. Little A. (C) 7. Tilley J. 10. Kelly J. 18. Bugiel O.	1. Addai C. (G) 5. Ransom H. 3. Conroy D. 30. Wright W. 2. Gordon K. 26. Williams J. 4. Kelly L. 14. Forster H. 10. Darcy R. 8. Lolos K. 9. Orsi-Dadomo D.
Substitutes
24. Curtis R. 38. Gordon J. 19. O'Toole J. J. 15. Pearce A. 8. Pell H. 4. Reeves J. 1. Tzanev N. (G)	22. Adeyemo A. 28. Campbell A. 7. Gladwin B. 19. Kelly J. 20. Mukena J. 11. Roles J. 13. Sandford R. (G) 25. Tsaroulla N.
Coaches
Jackson J.	Lindsey S.

Preview

Postponed due to frozen pitch.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Wimbledon won 3.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Crawley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Wimbledon is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Wimbledon won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Wimbledon won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Wimbledon
English League Two
17.02.24	AFC Wimbledon - Morecambe	1:1 ✺
13.02.24	Accrington Stanley - AFC Wimbledon	2:0 ✺
10.02.24	AFC Wimbledon - Barrow	2:0 ✺
03.02.24	Bradford City - AFC Wimbledon	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
30.01.24	Peterborough United - AFC Wimbledon	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLWTL
- Crawley Town
English League Two
17.02.24	Crawley Town - Forest Green Rovers	2:0 ✺
13.02.24	Crawley Town - Walsall	1:1 ✺
10.02.24	Crewe Alexandra - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
03.02.24	Crawley Town - Morecambe	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
23.01.24	Peterborough United - Crawley Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
22.12.23	Crawley Town - AFC Wimbledon	1:2
18.03.23	AFC Wimbledon - Crawley Town	0:1
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	AFC Wimbledon - Crawley Town	3:2
English League Two
20.08.22	Crawley Town - AFC Wimbledon	0:2
English FA Cup
29.11.20	AFC Wimbledon - Crawley Town	1:2
English League Two
16.04.16	AFC Wimbledon - Crawley Town	1:0
15.08.15	Crawley Town - AFC Wimbledon	1:2

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